Sha Tin · 2023-02-05 · 16:43

Race 8

Group 1 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 8 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-05 was Group 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/2, with WELLINGTON second and SIGHT SUCCESS third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.12

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.08.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man	Z Purton	K L Man	8	126 lb	1.7	1-1/2
2	1	WELLINGTON XB A Badel · R Gibson	A Badel	R Gibson	5	126 lb	3.0	1-1/2
3	3	SIGHT SUCCESS E V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	2	126 lb	8.8	1-1/2
4	6	COURIER WONDER H L Currie · J Size	L Currie	J Size	4	126 lb	27.0	2
5	4	SKY FIELD TT H Bowman · C Fownes	H Bowman	C Fownes	6	126 lb	16.0	3
6	5	SUPER WEALTHY CP- L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	1	126 lb	45.0	3
7	7	DUKE WAI V H Bentley · P C Ng	H Bentley	P C Ng	3	126 lb	44.0	3
8	8	MASTER EIGHT TT K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	7	126 lb	27.0	6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick LUCKY SWEYNESSE (52.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	LUCKY SWEYNESSE	52.6%	1.90	1	1.7
2	1	WELLINGTON	14.1%	7.08	2	3.0
3	3	SIGHT SUCCESS	11.2%	8.92	3	8.8
4	4	SKY FIELD	9.8%	10.18	5	16.0
5	8	MASTER EIGHT	3.8%	26.39	8	27.0
6	7	DUKE WAI	3.2%	30.85	7	44.0
7	5	SUPER WEALTHY	3.0%	33.05	6	45.0
8	6	COURIER WONDER	2.2%	45.59	4	27.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 17

PLACE

1 13

2 10.1

3 20

QUINELLA

1,2 25

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 14.5

1,3 31

2,3 24.5

FORECAST

2,1 40

TIERCE

2,1,3 115

TRIO

1,2,3 40

FIRST 4

1,2,3,6 131

QUARTET

2,1,3,6 832

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 11

A3 —

A2 —

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5/1,2,3 750

7TH DOUBLE

2/1 19

2/2 88

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