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Sha Tin · 2023-02-05 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPREME LUCKY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-3/4, with BRAVE DREAMS second and MODULECONSTRUCTION third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SUPREME LUCKY TT 1.09.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 4 1.6 1-3/4
2 2 BRAVE DREAMS TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 8 6.1 1-3/4
3 7 MODULECONSTRUCTION H1/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 38.0 2-1/2
4 3 EXCELLENT FIGHTER TT S De Sousa · P F Yiu 13 8.5 3-1/2
5 8 MULTIDARLING C L Chau · T P Yung 10 50.0 4
6 12 KING OF THE COURT B K Teetan · D J Whyte 6 11.0 4
7 4 FARIBAULT B Y L Chung · P C Ng 14 21.0 5-1/4
8 6 M UNICORN H/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 2 59.0 5-1/2
9 5 RED TITAN TT L Currie · J Size 12 19.0 5-1/2
10 14 SPEEDSTAR B A Badel · D J Hall 3 26.0 6-3/4
11 11 SUPER MAGIC B L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 136.0 8
12 9 HERCULES B/TT V Borges · C H Yip 7 110.0 8-1/4
13 13 KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 5 78.0 10-1/2
14 10 PERFECT ROCK B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 9 189.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPREME LUCKY2. BRAVE DREAMS+1.75L3. MODULECONSTRUCTION+2.5L4. EXCELLENT FIGHTER+3.5L5. MULTIDARLING+4L6. KING OF THE COURT+4L7. FARIBAULT+5.25L8. M UNICORN+5.5L9. RED TITAN+5.5L10. SPEEDSTAR+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUPREME LUCKY (25.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SUPREME LUCKY 25.0% 4.00 1
2 2 BRAVE DREAMS 21.3% 4.70 2
3 3 EXCELLENT FIGHTER 15.2% 6.59 4
4 4 FARIBAULT 7.7% 13.05 7
5 7 MODULECONSTRUCTION 6.5% 15.39 3
6 12 KING OF THE COURT 6.1% 16.39 6
7 14 SPEEDSTAR 4.5% 22.20 10
8 5 RED TITAN 4.0% 24.92 9
9 8 MULTIDARLING 3.4% 29.48 5
10 13 KOWLOON EAST STAR 1.8% 55.34 13
11 6 M UNICORN 1.8% 55.66 8
12 9 HERCULES 1.4% 70.63 12
13 11 SUPER MAGIC 0.7% 143.28 11
14 10 PERFECT ROCK 0.6% 158.39 14
SUPREME LUCKY — wonBRAVE DREAMSEXCELLENT FIGHTERFARIBAULTMODULECONSTRUCTIONKING OF THE COURTSPEEDSTARRED TITANMULTIDARLINGKOWLOON EAST STARM UNICORNHERCULESSUPER MAGICPERFECT ROCK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16

PLACE

1 10.5

2 17.5

7 76

QUINELLA

1,2 44

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 22

1,7 94

2,7 231

FORECAST

1,2 64

TIERCE

1,2,7 1,171

TRIO

1,2,7 294

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 503

QUARTET

1,2,7,3 6,271

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 13

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,7/1,2,7 24,863

5TH DOUBLE

4/1 109

4/2 61

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,4,6,13/3,4,7/1,2,7 123,393

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,4,6,13/3,4,7/Any Combination 377