Sha Tin · 2023-02-05 · 15:36
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPREME LUCKY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-3/4, with BRAVE DREAMS second and MODULECONSTRUCTION third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUPREME LUCKY TT 1.09.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 4 | 1.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | BRAVE DREAMS TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 8 | 6.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | MODULECONSTRUCTION H1/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 38.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER TT S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 13 | 8.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | MULTIDARLING C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 10 | 50.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | KING OF THE COURT B K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 6 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | FARIBAULT B Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 14 | 21.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | M UNICORN H/TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 2 | 59.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | RED TITAN TT L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 12 | 19.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | SPEEDSTAR B A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 3 | 26.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | SUPER MAGIC B L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 11 | 136.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | HERCULES B/TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 7 | 110.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 5 | 78.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | PERFECT ROCK B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 9 | 189.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUPREME LUCKY | 25.0% | 4.00 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | BRAVE DREAMS | 21.3% | 4.70 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER | 15.2% | 6.59 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | FARIBAULT | 7.7% | 13.05 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | MODULECONSTRUCTION | 6.5% | 15.39 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | KING OF THE COURT | 6.1% | 16.39 | 6 |
| 7 | 14 | SPEEDSTAR | 4.5% | 22.20 | 10 |
| 8 | 5 | RED TITAN | 4.0% | 24.92 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | MULTIDARLING | 3.4% | 29.48 | 5 |
| 10 | 13 | KOWLOON EAST STAR | 1.8% | 55.34 | 13 |
| 11 | 6 | M UNICORN | 1.8% | 55.66 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | HERCULES | 1.4% | 70.63 | 12 |
| 13 | 11 | SUPER MAGIC | 0.7% | 143.28 | 11 |
| 14 | 10 | PERFECT ROCK | 0.6% | 158.39 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 16
PLACE
1 10.5
2 17.5
7 76
QUINELLA
1,2 44
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 22
1,7 94
2,7 231
FORECAST
1,2 64
TIERCE
1,2,7 1,171
TRIO
1,2,7 294
FIRST 4
1,2,3,7 503
QUARTET
1,2,7,3 6,271
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 13
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,7/1,2,7 24,863
5TH DOUBLE
4/1 109
4/2 61
TRIPLE TRIO
1,3,4,6,13/3,4,7/1,2,7 123,393
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,3,4,6,13/3,4,7/Any Combination 377