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Happy Valley · 2023-02-08 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FLYING SILVER Closed strongly CP/TT 1.49.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum 10 3.6 1-1/4
2 0 REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT A Badel · P F Yiu 1 3.4 1-1/4
3 0 HAPPY ANGEL Closed strongly B Z Purton · P C Ng 8 4.8 1-1/4
4 0 FOREVER GLORIOUS Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 9.2 2
5 0 HELENE ALLIBOR B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 3 13.0 2-1/4
6 0 LUCKY DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT L Currie · K H Ting 12 36.0 2-1/2
7 0 HAPPY JAI JAI Led early TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 4 42.0 3-1/4
8 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE K Teetan · C W Chang 9 25.0 3-3/4
9 0 TYCOON JEWELLERY H/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Size 2 47.0 4
10 0 CIRCUIT ELITE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 9.6 4-3/4
11 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly XB M F Poon · D J Hall 11 49.0 5-1/4
12 0 BLASTOISE K H Chan · A T Millard 7 44.0 9

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-08 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. FLYING SILVER, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with REACH GOAL second and HAPPY ANGEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite REACH GOAL finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING SILVER—2. REACH GOAL+1.25L3. HAPPY ANGEL+1.25L4. FOREVER GLORIOUS+2L5. HELENE ALLIBOR+2.25L6. LUCKY DIAMOND+2.5L7. HAPPY JAI JAI+3.25L8. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+3.75L9. TYCOON JEWELLERY+4L10. CIRCUIT ELITE+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLYING SILVER (23.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLYING SILVER 23.0% 4.35 1
2 0 HAPPY ANGEL 18.0% 5.55 3
3 0 FOREVER GLORIOUS 15.0% 6.66 4
4 0 REACH GOAL 8.5% 11.81 2
5 0 HAPPY JAI JAI 7.9% 12.61 7
6 0 HELENE ALLIBOR 5.9% 17.06 5
7 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 5.3% 18.83 8
8 0 CIRCUIT ELITE 4.8% 20.98 10
9 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 3.8% 26.63 11
10 0 BLASTOISE 2.8% 35.18 12
11 0 LUCKY DIAMOND 2.6% 38.36 6
12 0 TYCOON JEWELLERY 2.4% 40.99 9
FLYING SILVER — wonHAPPY ANGELFOREVER GLORIOUSREACH GOALHAPPY JAI JAIHELENE ALLIBORPRESIDENT'S CHOICECIRCUIT ELITEYEE CHEONG WARRIORBLASTOISELUCKY DIAMONDTYCOON JEWELLERY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 36

PLACE

3 14.5

6 17

12 15.5

QUINELLA

3,12 96

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 34

3,12 38

6,12 37.5

FORECAST

3,12 188

TIERCE

3,12,6 603

TRIO

3,6,12 121

FIRST 4

3,6,9,12 137

QUARTET

3,12,6,9 2,130

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/3 159

12/12 31.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 20.5