Happy Valley · 2023-02-08 · 21:46
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-08 was Class 1 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. THE IRISHMAN, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with SAVAQUIN second and EVERYONE'S DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite PACKING AWARD finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | THE IRISHMAN Closed strongly H/XB/TT 1.39.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 4.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | SAVAQUIN Closed strongly P- K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 10 | 9.7 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT Led early V/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 11 | 38.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 2 | 8.6 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · C Fownes | S De Sousa | C Fownes | 1 | 5.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 9 | 43.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly CP-/TT L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 8 | 26.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 5 | 53.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | PACKING AWARD H Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 4 | 2.8 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | APACHE PASS BO/XB L Hewitson · P C Ng | L Hewitson | P C Ng | 6 | 69.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | BEAUTY LIVE TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 10.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PACKING AWARD | 20.5% | 4.88 | 9 |
| 2 | 11 | NEARLY FINE | 14.8% | 6.75 | 5 |
| 3 | 1 | BERLIN TANGO | 13.9% | 7.20 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | CHANCHENG PRINCE | 10.6% | 9.44 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | BEAUTY LIVE | 10.0% | 10.01 | 11 |
| 6 | 4 | THE IRISHMAN | 6.5% | 15.46 | 1 |
| 7 | 9 | SAVAQUIN | 6.1% | 16.40 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | APACHE PASS | 4.9% | 20.33 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT | 4.6% | 21.66 | 3 |
| 10 | 3 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 4.3% | 23.36 | 6 |
| 11 | 2 | FANTASTIC TREASURE | 3.9% | 25.93 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 41
PLACE
4 16
9 29
10 73.5
QUINELLA
4,9 225.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 71.5
4,10 202.5
9,10 278.5
FORECAST
4,9 373
TIERCE
4,9,10 7,762
TRIO
4,9,10 1,888
FIRST 4
1,4,9,10 1,609
QUARTET
4,9,10,1 35,977
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 22.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,9,10/4,9,10 266,397
6TH DOUBLE
10/4 720.5
10/9 338
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,12/3,9,10/Any Combination 23,192