Happy Valley · 2023-02-08 · 20:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-08 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SPECIAL M, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with HARMONY FIRE second and CALIFORNIA DEEPLY third. The 2.2 favourite CALIFORNIA DEEPLY finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SPECIAL M PC/TT 0.56.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 6 | 5.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | HARMONY FIRE SR/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 4 | 17.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 2.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | HEROIC MASTER TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 10 | 3.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | METRO WARRIOR B K H Chan · D A Hayes | K H Chan | D A Hayes | 1 | 49.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | SCOTCH TYCOON B- C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 36.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPER COMMANDER V/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 2 | 5.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | VALIANT ELEGANCE SR-/B2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 63.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 5 | 29.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | LIFE IS GOOD XB/H1/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 3 | 128.0 | 13-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 33.2% | 3.01 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | HEROIC MASTER | 27.7% | 3.61 | 4 |
| 3 | 9 | SUPER COMMANDER | 11.5% | 8.71 | 7 |
| 4 | 3 | SPECIAL M | 8.6% | 11.68 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | METRO WARRIOR | 5.7% | 17.48 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | SUPER AXIOM | 3.8% | 26.20 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 | HARMONY FIRE | 3.3% | 30.07 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | VALIANT ELEGANCE | 2.8% | 35.12 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 2.6% | 38.06 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | LIFE IS GOOD | 0.7% | 135.46 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 57.5
PLACE
2 12
3 16.5
6 34.5
QUINELLA
3,6 389
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 27
2,6 62.5
3,6 103.5
FORECAST
3,6 799
TIERCE
3,6,2 2,427
TRIO
2,3,6 232
FIRST 4
2,3,4,6 148
QUARTET
3,6,2,4 7,023
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 26.5
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
8/3 192.5
8/6 145