Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2023-02-08 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-08 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HEARTY WISH, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with PACHISI second and AMAZING ROCKY third. The 4.1 favourite CHEER FOR SOUTH finished 9th.

Result

Official · 0.57.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 HEARTY WISH SR/B2/TT 0.57.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 6.9 N
2 4 PACHISI CP/XB/TT1 K Teetan · J Richards 12 5.2 N
3 1 AMAZING ROCKY C Wong · T P Yung 3 13.0 1/2
4 7 E UNIVERSE B1/TT1 Y L Chung · K L Man 4 10.0 1-1/4
5 10 ACE TALENT H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 5.6 3-1/4
6 11 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK CP L Ferraris · W Y So 5 25.0 5
7 9 CIRCUIT SEVEN H/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 9 14.0 5-1/4
8 8 JOY IN JOY A Badel · C H Yip 10 55.0 5-3/4
9 5 CHEER FOR SOUTH Z Purton · F C Lor 11 4.1 6
10 6 CHEONG FAT H1/PC1 M L Yeung · L Ho 6 41.0 6-1/2
11 2 COLONEL V H T Mo · P F Yiu 7 17.0 6-3/4
12 3 SERGEANT PEPPER K C Leung · Y S Tsui 8 12.0 7-1/4
0 FORTE H Bowman · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HEARTY WISH2. PACHISI+0.05L3. AMAZING ROCKY+0.5L4. E UNIVERSE+1.25L5. ACE TALENT+3.25L6. GOODLUCK GOODLUCK+5L7. CIRCUIT SEVEN+5.25L8. JOY IN JOY+5.75L9. CHEER FOR SOUTH+6L10. CHEONG FAT+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CHEER FOR SOUTH (21.1%) finished 9th — the winner HEARTY WISH was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 CHEER FOR SOUTH 21.1% 4.75 9
2 12 HEARTY WISH 14.4% 6.97 1
3 4 PACHISI 13.4% 7.48 2
4 1 AMAZING ROCKY 11.6% 8.64 3
5 10 ACE TALENT 6.4% 15.53 5
6 7 E UNIVERSE 6.2% 16.04 4
7 3 SERGEANT PEPPER 5.4% 18.37 12
8 2 COLONEL 5.4% 18.40 11
9 9 CIRCUIT SEVEN 5.4% 18.67 7
10 11 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK 4.8% 20.64 6
11 8 JOY IN JOY 3.5% 28.96 8
12 6 CHEONG FAT 2.4% 41.16 10
CHEER FOR SOUTHHEARTY WISH — wonPACHISIAMAZING ROCKYACE TALENTE UNIVERSESERGEANT PEPPERCOLONELCIRCUIT SEVENGOODLUCK GOODLUCKJOY IN JOYCHEONG FAT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 69

PLACE

1 35

4 20.5

12 22

QUINELLA

4,12 191.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 128.5

1,12 103

4,12 70.5

FORECAST

12,4 398

TIERCE

12,4,1 3,817

TRIO

1,4,12 893

FIRST 4

1,4,7,12 1,454

QUARTET

12,4,1,7 29,154

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,6/1,4,12 19,194

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 22

A1

4TH DOUBLE

3/4 73.5

3/12 408.5