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Happy Valley · 2023-02-08 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GORYTUS Closed strongly XB/TT 1.39.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum 4 32.0 N
2 0 ENCOUNTERED B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 5 2.2 N
3 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 9.1 3/4
4 0 SILVER HAMMER Closed strongly A Badel · R Gibson 1 30.0 1-1/2
6 0 EXCEPTIONAL NICE E/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 7 24.0 2
8 0 SIGHT SPIRIT Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 9 10.0 3
9 0 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 10 59.0 3
10 0 ALL BEAUTY C Y Ho · F C Lor 3 4.4 3-1/4
11 0 SATIRICAL GLORY L Hewitson · D A Hayes 8 30.0 3-3/4
12 0 SUPER BABY Led early CP H T Mo · P F Yiu 11 59.0 5-1/2
— 0 VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes — 20.0 2-1/4
— 0 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT K C Leung · K W Lui — 8.6 1-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-08 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GORYTUS, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with ENCOUNTERED second and MAJESTIC VICTORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite ENCOUNTERED finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GORYTUS—2. ENCOUNTERED+0.05L3. MAJESTIC VICTORY+0.75L4. SILVER HAMMER+1.5L6. EXCEPTIONAL NICE+2L8. SIGHT SPIRIT+3L9. TOTAL POWER+3L10. ALL BEAUTY+3.25L11. SATIRICAL GLORY+3.75L12. SUPER BABY+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ENCOUNTERED (26.1%) finished 2nd — the winner GORYTUS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ENCOUNTERED 26.1% 3.83 2
2 0 ALL BEAUTY 16.8% 5.95 10
3 0 SIGHT SPIRIT 15.7% 6.36 8
4 0 RISING FROM ASHES 6.7% 14.99 —
5 0 EXCEPTIONAL NICE 6.4% 15.73 6
6 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY 5.1% 19.60 3
7 0 GORYTUS 4.8% 20.73 1
8 0 SUPER BABY 4.6% 21.57 12
9 0 VIVA CHALEUR 4.6% 21.61 —
10 0 SATIRICAL GLORY 4.3% 23.53 11
11 0 TOTAL POWER 3.4% 29.40 9
12 0 SILVER HAMMER 1.5% 66.20 4
ENCOUNTEREDALL BEAUTYSIGHT SPIRITRISING FROM ASHESEXCEPTIONAL NICEMAJESTIC VICTORYGORYTUS — wonSUPER BABYVIVA CHALEURSATIRICAL GLORYTOTAL POWERSILVER HAMMER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 323

PLACE

1 62.5

3 12.5

10 27.5

QUINELLA

1,3 368

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 130

1,10 341.5

3,10 51.5

FORECAST

1,3 1,188

TIERCE

1,3,10 13,664

TRIO

1,3,10 867

FIRST 4

1,3,10,11 5,462

QUARTET

1,3,10,11 174,927

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 35

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

5,10,12/1,3,10 116,813

8TH DOUBLE

12/1 1,093

12/3 35.5

SIX UP

3,6/4,12/9,10/4,9/10,12/1,3 33,746

3/12/10/4/12/1 6,398,626

3 [H Bowman] —

3 [K W Lui] —

TREBLE

4/12/1 5,322

4/12/3 177