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Happy Valley · 2023-02-08 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-08 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GORYTUS, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with ENCOUNTERED second and MAJESTIC VICTORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite ENCOUNTERED finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GORYTUS Closed strongly XB/TT 1.39.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum 4 32.0 N
2 3 ENCOUNTERED B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 5 2.2 N
3 10 MAJESTIC VICTORY Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 9.1 3/4
4 11 SILVER HAMMER Closed strongly A Badel · R Gibson 1 30.0 1-1/2
5 4 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 2 8.6 1-3/4
6 7 EXCEPTIONAL NICE E/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 7 24.0 2
7 2 VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 12 20.0 2-1/4
8 5 SIGHT SPIRIT Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 9 10.0 3
9 9 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 10 59.0 3
10 6 ALL BEAUTY C Y Ho · F C Lor 3 4.4 3-1/4
11 8 SATIRICAL GLORY L Hewitson · D A Hayes 8 30.0 3-3/4
12 12 SUPER BABY Led early CP H T Mo · P F Yiu 11 59.0 5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GORYTUS2. ENCOUNTERED+0.05L3. MAJESTIC VICTORY+0.75L4. SILVER HAMMER+1.5L5. RISING FROM ASHES+1.75L6. EXCEPTIONAL NICE+2L7. VIVA CHALEUR+2.25L8. SIGHT SPIRIT+3L9. TOTAL POWER+3L10. ALL BEAUTY+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ENCOUNTERED (26.1%) finished 2nd — the winner GORYTUS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 ENCOUNTERED 26.1% 3.83 2
2 6 ALL BEAUTY 16.8% 5.95 10
3 5 SIGHT SPIRIT 15.7% 6.36 8
4 4 RISING FROM ASHES 6.7% 14.99 5
5 7 EXCEPTIONAL NICE 6.4% 15.73 6
6 10 MAJESTIC VICTORY 5.1% 19.60 3
7 1 GORYTUS 4.8% 20.73 1
8 12 SUPER BABY 4.6% 21.57 12
9 2 VIVA CHALEUR 4.6% 21.61 7
10 8 SATIRICAL GLORY 4.3% 23.53 11
11 9 TOTAL POWER 3.4% 29.40 9
12 11 SILVER HAMMER 1.5% 66.20 4
ENCOUNTEREDALL BEAUTYSIGHT SPIRITRISING FROM ASHESEXCEPTIONAL NICEMAJESTIC VICTORYGORYTUS — wonSUPER BABYVIVA CHALEURSATIRICAL GLORYTOTAL POWERSILVER HAMMER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 323

PLACE

1 62.5

3 12.5

10 27.5

QUINELLA

1,3 368

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 130

1,10 341.5

3,10 51.5

FORECAST

1,3 1,188

TIERCE

1,3,10 13,664

TRIO

1,3,10 867

FIRST 4

1,3,10,11 5,462

QUARTET

1,3,10,11 174,927

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 35

A2

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

5,10,12/1,3,10 116,813

8TH DOUBLE

12/1 1,093

12/3 35.5

SIX UP

3,6/4,12/9,10/4,9/10,12/1,3 33,746

3/12/10/4/12/1 6,398,626

3 [K W Lui]

3 [H Bowman]

TREBLE

4/12/1 5,322

4/12/3 177