Happy Valley · 2023-03-01 · 18:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-01 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. OUR CREED, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/4, with CHARIZARD second and HANG'S CHOICE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite SMILING FACE finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | OUR CREED Wire to wire V 1.40.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 6 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 7 | 6.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 4 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | HO HO JUNIOR C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 8 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 11 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | MOONLUCK H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 5 | 7.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | SMILING FACE Closed strongly B/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 1 | 2.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | ALL IS READY H-/XB-/B R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 3 | 15.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | FOXHUNTER WAY Closed strongly A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 10 | 10.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | KARUIZAWA B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 9 | 27.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 2 | BLAZING SUN B/XB/TT L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 2 | 49.0 | 13-3/4 |
| — | 7 | QUORUM Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SMILING FACE | 27.3% | 3.66 | 7 |
| 2 | 12 | MOONLUCK | 11.9% | 8.42 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 11.7% | 8.56 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 | CHARIZARD | 11.1% | 9.02 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | OUR CREED | 10.2% | 9.85 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | JOLLY HONOUR | 8.2% | 12.14 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | HANG'S CHOICE | 6.6% | 15.10 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 | HO HO JUNIOR | 6.3% | 15.78 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | ALL IS READY | 2.9% | 34.75 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | KARUIZAWA | 2.3% | 43.83 | 10 |
| 11 | 2 | BLAZING SUN | 1.5% | 65.37 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 68.5
PLACE
3 19.5
6 23
11 39.5
QUINELLA
3,6 275.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 87.5
3,11 158
6,11 146.5
FORECAST
6,3 645
TIERCE
6,3,11 9,097
TRIO
3,6,11 1,279
FIRST 4
3,4,6,11 4,605
QUARTET
6,3,11,4 97,236
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 28.5
A3 —