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Happy Valley · 2023-03-01 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-01 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. STAR CONTACT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with HAPPY DAILY second and EXCEPTIONAL NICE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.40.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 4.2 1/2
2 6 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · L Ho 2 10.0 1/2
2 8 EXCEPTIONAL NICE Closed strongly E/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 16.0 1/2
4 4 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 12 29.0 3/4
5 1 RED MAJESTY Led early B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 1 21.0 1
6 9 LESLIE Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 18.0 2
7 10 MAJESTIC VICTORY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 11.0 2-1/4
8 2 GALLANT WAKING Closed strongly XB S De Sousa · K W Lui 9 8.1 2-1/2
9 7 CASA COSMO B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 8 4.8 4-1/2
10 12 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly H Bentley · C Fownes 10 5.7 4-3/4
11 3 ALL BEAUTY Closed strongly C Y Ho · F C Lor 11 15.0 6-1/4
12 5 GALLANT CROWN B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard 4 41.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR CONTACT2. HAPPY DAILY+0.5L2. EXCEPTIONAL NICE+0.5L4. ZONE D+0.75L5. RED MAJESTY+1L6. LESLIE+2L7. MAJESTIC VICTORY+2.25L8. GALLANT WAKING+2.5L9. CASA COSMO+4.5L10. STORM LEGEND+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CASA COSMO (17.8%) finished 9th — the winner STAR CONTACT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 CASA COSMO 17.8% 5.63 9
2 11 STAR CONTACT 13.0% 7.69 1
3 9 LESLIE 11.8% 8.45 6
4 2 GALLANT WAKING 9.9% 10.12 8
5 6 HAPPY DAILY 9.4% 10.64 2
6 8 EXCEPTIONAL NICE 8.6% 11.67 2
7 10 MAJESTIC VICTORY 8.3% 12.08 7
8 3 ALL BEAUTY 6.3% 15.97 11
9 12 STORM LEGEND 6.0% 16.62 10
10 4 ZONE D 3.9% 25.36 4
11 1 RED MAJESTY 3.3% 30.70 5
12 5 GALLANT CROWN 1.8% 55.45 12
CASA COSMOSTAR CONTACT — wonLESLIEGALLANT WAKINGHAPPY DAILYEXCEPTIONAL NICEMAJESTIC VICTORYALL BEAUTYSTORM LEGENDZONE DRED MAJESTYGALLANT CROWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 42

PLACE

6 30.5

8 44

11 16.5

QUINELLA

6,11 108.5

8,11 179.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 212

6,11 71.5

8,11 117.5

FORECAST

11,6 231

11,8 268

TIERCE

11,6,8 2,408

11,8,6 2,146

TRIO

6,8,11 833

FIRST 4

4,6,8,11 5,894

QUARTET

11,6,8,4 50,245

11,8,6,4 38,629

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 22.5

7TH DOUBLE

4/6 499

4/8 488

4/11 3,142