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Happy Valley · 2023-03-01 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.40.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 4.2 1/2
2 0 EXCEPTIONAL NICE Closed strongly E/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 16.0 1/2
2 0 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · L Ho 2 10.0 1/2
4 0 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 12 29.0 3/4
5 0 RED MAJESTY Led early B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 1 21.0 1
7 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 11.0 2-1/4
8 0 GALLANT WAKING Closed strongly XB S De Sousa · K W Lui 9 8.1 2-1/2
9 0 CASA COSMO B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 8 4.8 4-1/2
10 0 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly H Bentley · C Fownes 10 5.7 4-3/4
11 0 ALL BEAUTY Closed strongly C Y Ho · F C Lor 11 15.0 6-1/4
12 0 GALLANT CROWN B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard 4 41.0 10-1/4
— 0 LESLIE Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu — 18.0 2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-01 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. STAR CONTACT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with EXCEPTIONAL NICE second and HAPPY DAILY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR CONTACT—2. EXCEPTIONAL NICE+0.5L2. HAPPY DAILY+0.5L4. ZONE D+0.75L5. RED MAJESTY+1L7. MAJESTIC VICTORY+2.25L8. GALLANT WAKING+2.5L9. CASA COSMO+4.5L10. STORM LEGEND+4.75L11. ALL BEAUTY+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CASA COSMO (17.8%) finished 9th — the winner STAR CONTACT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CASA COSMO 17.8% 5.63 9
2 0 STAR CONTACT 13.0% 7.69 1
3 0 LESLIE 11.8% 8.45 —
4 0 GALLANT WAKING 9.9% 10.12 8
5 0 HAPPY DAILY 9.4% 10.64 2
6 0 EXCEPTIONAL NICE 8.6% 11.67 2
7 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY 8.3% 12.08 7
8 0 ALL BEAUTY 6.3% 15.97 11
9 0 STORM LEGEND 6.0% 16.62 10
10 0 ZONE D 3.9% 25.36 4
11 0 RED MAJESTY 3.3% 30.70 5
12 0 GALLANT CROWN 1.8% 55.45 12
CASA COSMOSTAR CONTACT — wonLESLIEGALLANT WAKINGHAPPY DAILYEXCEPTIONAL NICEMAJESTIC VICTORYALL BEAUTYSTORM LEGENDZONE DRED MAJESTYGALLANT CROWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 42

PLACE

6 30.5

8 44

11 16.5

QUINELLA

6,11 108.5

8,11 179.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 212

6,11 71.5

8,11 117.5

FORECAST

11,6 231

11,8 268

TIERCE

11,6,8 2,408

11,8,6 2,146

TRIO

6,8,11 833

FIRST 4

4,6,8,11 5,894

QUARTET

11,6,8,4 50,245

11,8,6,4 38,629

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 22.5

7TH DOUBLE

4/6 499

4/8 488

4/11 3,142