Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2023-03-01 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SNOWALOT, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D A Hayes, won by HD, with RIGHTEOUS ARION second and TELECOM SPEED third. The 3.4 favourite RIGHTEOUS ARION finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SNOWALOT B 1.09.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D A Hayes 8 6.8 HD
2 1 RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 6 3.4 HD
3 2 TELECOM SPEED S De Sousa · Y S Tsui 2 7.2 1-1/2
4 5 FURTHER FORWARD TT K C Leung · K L Man 10 13.0 2-1/2
5 9 WOOD ON FIRE V-/H2/TT K Teetan · L Ho 1 6.1 2-1/2
6 3 TRAVEL GOLF SR-/TT C Wong · C H Yip 12 136.0 2-3/4
7 4 FLAMING PASSION TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 12.0 3
8 8 NOBLE ACE B-/H- L Currie · J Size 3 29.0 3-1/4
9 6 JOY COMING TT1 Z Purton · K W Lui 9 5.4 4-1/4
10 12 ISLAND SHINE R Maia · P F Yiu 5 24.0 4-1/2
11 7 MELBOURNE HALL B/XB Y L Chung · D J Hall 11 32.0 4-1/2
12 11 HAPPILY FRIENDS V A Hamelin · W Y So 4 43.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SNOWALOT2. RIGHTEOUS ARION+0.2L3. TELECOM SPEED+1.5L4. FURTHER FORWARD+2.5L5. WOOD ON FIRE+2.5L6. TRAVEL GOLF+2.75L7. FLAMING PASSION+3L8. NOBLE ACE+3.25L9. JOY COMING+4.25L10. ISLAND SHINE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JOY COMING (21.7%) finished 9th — the winner SNOWALOT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 JOY COMING 21.7% 4.62 9
2 1 RIGHTEOUS ARION 20.4% 4.90 2
3 2 TELECOM SPEED 16.0% 6.25 3
4 10 SNOWALOT 10.0% 10.00 1
5 9 WOOD ON FIRE 7.6% 13.17 5
6 7 MELBOURNE HALL 6.0% 16.55 11
7 4 FLAMING PASSION 5.1% 19.58 7
8 12 ISLAND SHINE 5.1% 19.67 10
9 5 FURTHER FORWARD 4.1% 24.53 4
10 11 HAPPILY FRIENDS 1.8% 54.34 12
11 8 NOBLE ACE 1.3% 77.93 8
12 3 TRAVEL GOLF 0.9% 111.39 6
JOY COMINGRIGHTEOUS ARIONTELECOM SPEEDSNOWALOT — wonWOOD ON FIREMELBOURNE HALLFLAMING PASSIONISLAND SHINEFURTHER FORWARDHAPPILY FRIENDSNOBLE ACETRAVEL GOLF

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 68.5

PLACE

1 15

2 23

10 22.5

QUINELLA

1,10 125

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 49

1,10 50

2,10 85

FORECAST

10,1 371

TIERCE

10,1,2 1,893

TRIO

1,2,10 241

FIRST 4

1,2,5,10 660

QUARTET

10,1,2,5 16,409

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,9/1,2,10 30,282

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 27.5

4TH DOUBLE

8/1 32

8/10 423.5