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Happy Valley · 2023-03-01 · 19:17

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HK DRAGON Closed strongly B-/V1/TT 1.39.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 16.0 2-1/4
2 0 CORDYCEPS ONE Closed strongly H-/B K Teetan · K W Lui 4 6.3 2-1/4
3 0 HAPPY JAI JAI TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 2 11.0 3
4 0 CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR C Y Ho · D A Hayes 1 4.2 4-1/4
5 0 SIXTH GENERATION Led early H/TT S De Sousa · J Richards 11 3.2 5-1/4
6 0 ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly V Z Purton · P F Yiu 8 6.5 6-3/4
7 0 CHARMING STEED TT K H Chan · C Fownes 10 31.0 7-1/2
8 0 CIRCUIT ELITE CP2/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 9 25.0 7-3/4
9 0 EXUBERANT B-/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 5 10.0 7-3/4
10 0 PEAK TO PEAK Closed strongly PC/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 12 59.0 8-1/2
11 0 JUST GREAT TWO B L Currie · D J Hall 7 107.0 8-3/4
12 0 SCHOLARLY KING B1/TT1 H Bentley · K L Man 3 91.0 20-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-01 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HK DRAGON, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/4, with CORDYCEPS ONE second and HAPPY JAI JAI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite SIXTH GENERATION finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HK DRAGON—2. CORDYCEPS ONE+2.25L3. HAPPY JAI JAI+3L4. CHATER PINS+4.25L5. SIXTH GENERATION+5.25L6. ROBOT WARRIOR+6.75L7. CHARMING STEED+7.5L8. CIRCUIT ELITE+7.75L9. EXUBERANT+7.75L10. PEAK TO PEAK+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SIXTH GENERATION (23.3%) finished 5th — the winner HK DRAGON was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SIXTH GENERATION 23.3% 4.30 5
2 0 CHATER PINS 15.6% 6.40 4
3 0 EXUBERANT 13.0% 7.72 9
4 0 ROBOT WARRIOR 12.9% 7.76 6
5 0 CORDYCEPS ONE 8.4% 11.87 2
6 0 HAPPY JAI JAI 6.9% 14.53 3
7 0 PEAK TO PEAK 5.2% 19.12 10
8 0 HK DRAGON 4.6% 21.78 1
9 0 CIRCUIT ELITE 4.2% 23.93 8
10 0 CHARMING STEED 2.7% 36.37 7
11 0 SCHOLARLY KING 2.4% 41.73 12
12 0 JUST GREAT TWO 0.8% 122.20 11
SIXTH GENERATIONCHATER PINSEXUBERANTROBOT WARRIORCORDYCEPS ONEHAPPY JAI JAIPEAK TO PEAKHK DRAGON — wonCIRCUIT ELITECHARMING STEEDSCHOLARLY KINGJUST GREAT TWO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 166.5

PLACE

1 43.5

9 27.5

12 22

QUINELLA

1,12 492.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 186

1,12 134.5

9,12 83

FORECAST

1,12 1,150

TIERCE

1,12,9 8,164

TRIO

1,9,12 1,306

FIRST 4

1,9,11,12 907

QUARTET

1,12,9,11 27,353

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/1 1,031.5

6/12 117.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 31