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Happy Valley · 2023-03-01 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 1.09.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size 2 1.6 2
2 0 MAJESTIC KNIGHT B S De Sousa · D J Whyte 9 8.7 2
3 0 CALIFORNIA CIBLE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 10.0 2-1/2
5 0 CZARSON CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 16.0 4-1/4
6 0 SEIZING THE MOMENT B L Currie · J Size 1 30.0 4-1/2
7 0 HERE COMES TED B/TT L Ferraris · D J Hall 11 38.0 4-3/4
8 0 DINKUM CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 17.0 6-3/4
9 0 ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 12 11.0 7-1/2
10 0 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 3 72.0 8
11 0 EXCELLENT DADDY TT C L Chau · T P Yung 8 67.0 8-1/4
12 0 LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB A Hamelin · F C Lor 7 31.0 50
— 0 SETANTA B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes — 18.0 4-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by 2, with MAJESTIC KNIGHT second and CALIFORNIA CIBLE third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE—2. MAJESTIC KNIGHT+2L3. CALIFORNIA CIBLE+2.5L5. CZARSON+4.25L6. SEIZING THE MOMENT+4.5L7. HERE COMES TED+4.75L8. DINKUM+6.75L9. ARMOUR EAGLE+7.5L10. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+8L11. EXCELLENT DADDY+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE (30.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 30.1% 3.32 1
2 0 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 15.7% 6.37 2
3 0 ARMOUR EAGLE 8.5% 11.70 9
4 0 CALIFORNIA CIBLE 8.0% 12.46 3
5 0 DINKUM 7.2% 13.99 8
6 0 CZARSON 5.6% 17.98 5
7 0 SETANTA 5.5% 18.05 —
8 0 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 4.9% 20.48 12
9 0 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 4.6% 21.62 10
10 0 SEIZING THE MOMENT 4.3% 23.32 6
11 0 HERE COMES TED 3.7% 26.73 7
12 0 EXCELLENT DADDY 1.8% 54.66 11
HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE — wonMAJESTIC KNIGHTARMOUR EAGLECALIFORNIA CIBLEDINKUMCZARSONSETANTALUCKY ARCHANGELEVERYONE'S VICTORYSEIZING THE MOMENTHERE COMES TEDEXCELLENT DADDY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 16

PLACE

1 26

3 22.5

9 10.5

QUINELLA

3,9 66.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 102.5

1,9 33.5

3,9 31

FORECAST

9,3 80

TIERCE

9,3,1 426

TRIO

1,3,9 166

FIRST 4

1,3,7,9 331

QUARTET

9,3,1,7 3,005

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 13.5

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,8,11/1,3,9 17,931

8TH DOUBLE

11/3 40

11/9 71

SIX UP

8,9/1,10/2,3/4,9/6,8,11/3,9 2,049

8/10/2/4/11/9 2,415,368

2 [K Teetan] —

5 [D A Hayes] —

TREBLE

4/11/3 3,957

4/11/9 9,784