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Happy Valley · 2023-03-01 · 21:18

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HOSS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/4, with VICTORY SCHOLARS second and MODEST GENTLEMAN third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HOSS XB/TT 1.09.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 11 3.3 1-1/4
2 3 VICTORY SCHOLARS V Y L Chung · C Fownes 2 4.9 1-1/4
3 10 MODEST GENTLEMAN P/TT M L Yeung · L Ho 5 34.0 2-1/2
4 6 HERCULES B2/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 4 22.0 3
5 8 FORTUNE CARRIER B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 7.9 3-3/4
6 1 KING ECCELLENTE CP/H/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 8 5.3 3-3/4
7 11 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR CP/XB A Hamelin · D J Hall 3 43.0 4-3/4
8 12 MIRACLES B S De Sousa · K L Man 1 5.3 5-1/2
9 9 FINGERS CROSSED TT K C Leung · J Size 12 14.0 6
10 7 TURTLE AGAIN B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 7 114.0 6-1/4
11 5 TRAVEL GUIDE XB1 L Hewitson · R Gibson 9 75.0 9-3/4
12 4 JAZZ WITH DRAGON L Currie · D A Hayes 10 62.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOSS2. VICTORY SCHOLARS+1.25L3. MODEST GENTLEMAN+2.5L4. HERCULES+3L5. FORTUNE CARRIER+3.75L6. KING ECCELLENTE+3.75L7. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+4.75L8. MIRACLES+5.5L9. FINGERS CROSSED+6L10. TURTLE AGAIN+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick VICTORY SCHOLARS (23.4%) finished 2nd — the winner HOSS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 VICTORY SCHOLARS 23.4% 4.27 2
2 2 HOSS 22.3% 4.48 1
3 1 KING ECCELLENTE 16.3% 6.12 6
4 12 MIRACLES 13.7% 7.28 8
5 8 FORTUNE CARRIER 6.2% 16.00 5
6 9 FINGERS CROSSED 6.1% 16.41 9
7 10 MODEST GENTLEMAN 3.2% 30.97 3
8 5 TRAVEL GUIDE 3.1% 32.14 11
9 4 JAZZ WITH DRAGON 1.8% 55.88 12
10 11 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 1.7% 60.54 7
11 6 HERCULES 1.3% 77.22 4
12 7 TURTLE AGAIN 0.8% 123.58 10
VICTORY SCHOLARSHOSS — wonKING ECCELLENTEMIRACLESFORTUNE CARRIERFINGERS CROSSEDMODEST GENTLEMANTRAVEL GUIDEJAZZ WITH DRAGONYEE CHEONG WARRIORHERCULESTURTLE AGAIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 33

PLACE

2 16

3 18

10 74.5

QUINELLA

2,3 93.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 40

2,10 226

3,10 254

FORECAST

2,3 201

TIERCE

2,3,10 5,137

TRIO

2,3,10 1,065

FIRST 4

2,3,6,10 4,027

QUARTET

2,3,10,6 49,054

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 23.5

5TH DOUBLE

10/2 391

10/3 66