Happy Valley · 2023-03-01 · 19:47
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. A AMERIC TE SPECSO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with HAPPY TRIO second and SUPER EAGLE third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 1.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | HAPPY TRIO SR-/B2 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 8 | 8.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | SUPER EAGLE H-/XB1 C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 4 | 31.0 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | LUCKY GOLD B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 4.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | FLYING SWORD B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 10 | 47.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | LORIZ B M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 9 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | ACE TALENT H/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 12 | 16.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | H Z TOURBILLON TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 6 | 10.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | AMAZING TRAVIS H1/TT1 A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 7 | 129.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | SUPER DOBBIN B S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 11 | 60.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | CROWN OF STAR XB1/TT1 L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 3 | 19.0 | 10 |
| — | 8 | SPICY SO SMART H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 30.7% | 3.26 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | LUCKY GOLD | 23.7% | 4.22 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | HAPPY TRIO | 9.9% | 10.06 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | LORIZ | 8.2% | 12.13 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | H Z TOURBILLON | 6.0% | 16.80 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | ACE TALENT | 5.6% | 17.93 | 7 |
| 7 | 6 | CROWN OF STAR | 4.9% | 20.45 | 11 |
| 8 | 3 | FLYING SWORD | 3.5% | 28.90 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | SUPER DOBBIN | 2.7% | 36.50 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | SUPER EAGLE | 2.4% | 41.33 | 3 |
| 11 | 5 | AMAZING TRAVIS | 2.3% | 42.67 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 19.5
PLACE
7 57
9 11
12 21
QUINELLA
9,12 78
QUINELLA PLACE
7,9 96.5
7,12 228
9,12 33.5
FORECAST
9,12 126
TIERCE
9,12,7 1,716
TRIO
7,9,12 467
FIRST 4
2,7,9,12 399
QUARTET
9,12,7,2 6,985
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,9,12/7,12>8,9 67,123
2ND DOUBLE
1/8,9 461.5
1/12 180
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 16.5