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Happy Valley · 2023-03-08 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SON PAK FU, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-3/4, with DIVINE ERA second and KOKUSHI MUSOU third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SON PAK FU BO 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 4 2.8 1-3/4
2 3 DIVINE ERA TT K C Leung · K H Ting 3 10.0 1-3/4
3 1 KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 4.3 2
4 2 DURHAM STAR B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 3.5 2-3/4
5 11 SHADOW RUNNER TT K Teetan · J Richards 8 12.0 5
6 12 DRAGON KINGDOM M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 1 17.0 5-1/4
7 6 MASTER OF ALL H T Mo · L Ho 9 65.0 5-1/2
8 7 SO AWESOME B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 10 34.0 6-1/4
9 8 JOY IN JOY A Badel · C H Yip 5 30.0 9-1/4
10 5 DARCI LEGEND H1/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 82.0 9-1/4
11 4 KEEN UNITY B/TT2 H Bentley · A T Millard 11 91.0 10-3/4
12 9 MULTIWIN B/H M F Poon · A S Cruz 2 85.0 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SON PAK FU2. DIVINE ERA+1.75L3. KOKUSHI MUSOU+2L4. DURHAM STAR+2.75L5. SHADOW RUNNER+5L6. DRAGON KINGDOM+5.25L7. MASTER OF ALL+5.5L8. SO AWESOME+6.25L9. JOY IN JOY+9.25L10. DARCI LEGEND+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SON PAK FU (27.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SON PAK FU 27.8% 3.60 1
2 3 DIVINE ERA 15.8% 6.34 2
3 1 KOKUSHI MUSOU 14.1% 7.11 3
4 2 DURHAM STAR 9.7% 10.33 4
5 5 DARCI LEGEND 6.9% 14.57 10
6 11 SHADOW RUNNER 6.6% 15.18 5
7 7 SO AWESOME 5.1% 19.66 8
8 12 DRAGON KINGDOM 4.4% 22.58 6
9 6 MASTER OF ALL 3.0% 32.85 7
10 8 JOY IN JOY 2.4% 41.85 9
11 4 KEEN UNITY 2.4% 42.01 11
12 9 MULTIWIN 1.9% 51.60 12
SON PAK FU — wonDIVINE ERAKOKUSHI MUSOUDURHAM STARDARCI LEGENDSHADOW RUNNERSO AWESOMEDRAGON KINGDOMMASTER OF ALLJOY IN JOYKEEN UNITYMULTIWIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 28

PLACE

1 16

3 28

10 14

QUINELLA

3,10 137

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 66

1,10 27.5

3,10 49.5

FORECAST

10,3 210

TIERCE

10,3,1 658

TRIO

1,3,10 142

FIRST 4

1,2,3,10 74

QUARTET

10,3,1,2 1,634

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 17

A3