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Happy Valley · 2023-03-08 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 PEGASUS GENERAL Closed strongly V 1.49.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K H Ting 7 9.8 HD
2 0 SATIRICAL GLORY Led early H M F Poon · D A Hayes 1 10.0 HD
3 0 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly L Hewitson · W Y So 3 11.0 HD
4 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 38.0 1/2
5 0 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 12 2.1 1
6 0 ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H K Teetan · J Size 11 10.0 2-1/4
7 0 MEANINGFUL STAR B K C Leung · K W Lui 8 24.0 2-1/2
8 0 ROUND THE EARTH Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall 9 12.0 3
9 0 SUPER OASIS H-/B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 2 33.0 3-1/4
10 0 PRECISE EXPRESS H L Ferraris · P F Yiu 6 25.0 4-3/4
11 0 SAVVY KINGMAN A Badel · F C Lor 4 14.0 6
12 0 COMET SPLENDIDO CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 10 11.0 6-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-08 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. PEGASUS GENERAL, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K H Ting, won by HD, with SATIRICAL GLORY second and TIANCHI MONSTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite ROCKET SPADE finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PEGASUS GENERAL—2. SATIRICAL GLORY+0.2L3. TIANCHI MONSTER+0.2L4. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+0.5L5. ROCKET SPADE+1L6. ESCAPE ROUTE+2.25L7. MEANINGFUL STAR+2.5L8. ROUND THE EARTH+3L9. SUPER OASIS+3.25L10. PRECISE EXPRESS+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ROCKET SPADE (23.6%) finished 5th — the winner PEGASUS GENERAL was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ROCKET SPADE 23.6% 4.24 5
2 0 MEANINGFUL STAR 11.7% 8.53 7
3 0 COMET SPLENDIDO 10.5% 9.52 12
4 0 ROUND THE EARTH 8.9% 11.18 8
5 0 ESCAPE ROUTE 8.8% 11.37 6
6 0 PEGASUS GENERAL 8.7% 11.46 1
7 0 TIANCHI MONSTER 6.7% 14.99 3
8 0 SATIRICAL GLORY 6.0% 16.75 2
9 0 SAVVY KINGMAN 4.2% 23.65 11
10 0 PRECISE EXPRESS 4.1% 24.19 10
11 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 3.9% 25.54 4
12 0 SUPER OASIS 2.8% 35.57 9
ROCKET SPADEMEANINGFUL STARCOMET SPLENDIDOROUND THE EARTHESCAPE ROUTEPEGASUS GENERAL — wonTIANCHI MONSTERSATIRICAL GLORYSAVVY KINGMANPRECISE EXPRESSRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINESUPER OASIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 98.5

PLACE

1 27.5

10 30.5

11 30

QUINELLA

10,11 474

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 165

1,11 125.5

10,11 137.5

FORECAST

11,10 1,261

TIERCE

11,10,1 9,961

TRIO

1,10,11 1,451

FIRST 4

1,10,11,12 7,925

QUARTET

11,10,1,12 163,758

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 17.5

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

1/10 190

1/11 551.5