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Happy Valley · 2023-03-08 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-08 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. PEGASUS GENERAL, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K H Ting, won by HD, with SATIRICAL GLORY second and TIANCHI MONSTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite ROCKET SPADE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.49.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 PEGASUS GENERAL Closed strongly V 1.49.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K H Ting 7 9.8 HD
2 10 SATIRICAL GLORY Led early H M F Poon · D A Hayes 1 10.0 HD
3 1 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly L Hewitson · W Y So 3 11.0 HD
4 12 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 38.0 1/2
5 2 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 12 2.1 1
6 6 ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H K Teetan · J Size 11 10.0 2-1/4
7 3 MEANINGFUL STAR B K C Leung · K W Lui 8 24.0 2-1/2
8 9 ROUND THE EARTH Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall 9 12.0 3
9 8 SUPER OASIS H-/B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 2 33.0 3-1/4
10 4 PRECISE EXPRESS H L Ferraris · P F Yiu 6 25.0 4-3/4
11 5 SAVVY KINGMAN A Badel · F C Lor 4 14.0 6
12 7 COMET SPLENDIDO CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 10 11.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PEGASUS GENERAL2. SATIRICAL GLORY+0.2L3. TIANCHI MONSTER+0.2L4. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+0.5L5. ROCKET SPADE+1L6. ESCAPE ROUTE+2.25L7. MEANINGFUL STAR+2.5L8. ROUND THE EARTH+3L9. SUPER OASIS+3.25L10. PRECISE EXPRESS+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ROCKET SPADE (23.6%) finished 5th — the winner PEGASUS GENERAL was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ROCKET SPADE 23.6% 4.24 5
2 3 MEANINGFUL STAR 11.7% 8.53 7
3 7 COMET SPLENDIDO 10.5% 9.52 12
4 9 ROUND THE EARTH 8.9% 11.18 8
5 6 ESCAPE ROUTE 8.8% 11.37 6
6 11 PEGASUS GENERAL 8.7% 11.46 1
7 1 TIANCHI MONSTER 6.7% 14.99 3
8 10 SATIRICAL GLORY 6.0% 16.75 2
9 5 SAVVY KINGMAN 4.2% 23.65 11
10 4 PRECISE EXPRESS 4.1% 24.19 10
11 12 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 3.9% 25.54 4
12 8 SUPER OASIS 2.8% 35.57 9
ROCKET SPADEMEANINGFUL STARCOMET SPLENDIDOROUND THE EARTHESCAPE ROUTEPEGASUS GENERAL — wonTIANCHI MONSTERSATIRICAL GLORYSAVVY KINGMANPRECISE EXPRESSRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINESUPER OASIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 98.5

PLACE

1 27.5

10 30.5

11 30

QUINELLA

10,11 474

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 165

1,11 125.5

10,11 137.5

FORECAST

11,10 1,261

TIERCE

11,10,1 9,961

TRIO

1,10,11 1,451

FIRST 4

1,10,11,12 7,925

QUARTET

11,10,1,12 163,758

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 17.5

A2

5TH DOUBLE

1/10 190

1/11 551.5