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Happy Valley · 2023-03-08 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-08 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. KING OF THE COURT, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with KUNG FU TEA second and STURDY RUBY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.7 favourite LONDON LUCKYSTAR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.40.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 KING OF THE COURT Wire to wire B 1.40.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 17.0 1/2
2 3 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D J Hall 4 8.2 1/2
3 4 STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT1 H Bowman · K L Man 1 11.0 3/4
4 9 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly K Teetan · D A Hayes 10 6.7 1-1/4
5 8 IRON WILL Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 11 8.0 1-3/4
6 10 LONDON LUCKYSTAR B/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 3 2.7 3
7 1 COPARTNER ERA B K H Chan · W Y So 2 19.0 3
8 5 BABY Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 9 15.0 3-1/2
9 6 COPARTNER FIONN H/V/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 7 12.0 3-3/4
10 11 YOUNG SPARKLE A Hamelin · A T Millard 6 30.0 5-1/2
11 2 ALL JOYFUL B M Chadwick · T P Yung 5 21.0 9-1/4
12 7 ODE TO JOY B/XB/TT A Badel · P C Ng 8 41.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING OF THE COURT2. KUNG FU TEA+0.5L3. STURDY RUBY+0.75L4. SUNNY BABY+1.25L5. IRON WILL+1.75L6. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+3L7. COPARTNER ERA+3L8. BABY+3.5L9. COPARTNER FIONN+3.75L10. YOUNG SPARKLE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LONDON LUCKYSTAR (18.6%) finished 6th — the winner KING OF THE COURT was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 18.6% 5.39 6
2 4 STURDY RUBY 12.1% 8.26 3
3 8 IRON WILL 10.4% 9.58 5
4 3 KUNG FU TEA 9.1% 11.03 2
5 9 SUNNY BABY 8.7% 11.49 4
6 6 COPARTNER FIONN 8.3% 12.00 9
7 1 COPARTNER ERA 7.1% 14.06 7
8 7 ODE TO JOY 6.7% 14.93 12
9 12 KING OF THE COURT 6.5% 15.29 1
10 5 BABY 5.8% 17.20 8
11 11 YOUNG SPARKLE 3.7% 27.06 10
12 2 ALL JOYFUL 2.9% 34.07 11
LONDON LUCKYSTARSTURDY RUBYIRON WILLKUNG FU TEASUNNY BABYCOPARTNER FIONNCOPARTNER ERAODE TO JOYKING OF THE COURT — wonBABYYOUNG SPARKLEALL JOYFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 170.5

PLACE

3 20

4 45

12 47

QUINELLA

3,12 734

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 141

3,12 196.5

4,12 322.5

FORECAST

12,3 1,756

TIERCE

12,3,4 15,423

TRIO

3,4,12 2,548

FIRST 4

3,4,9,12 2,909

QUARTET

12,3,4,9 83,025

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 23.5

A1

3RD DOUBLE

8/3 774.5

8/12 10,945