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Happy Valley · 2023-03-08 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 KING OF THE COURT Wire to wire B 1.40.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 17.0 1/2
2 0 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D J Hall 4 8.2 1/2
4 0 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly K Teetan · D A Hayes 10 6.7 1-1/4
5 0 IRON WILL Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 11 8.0 1-3/4
6 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR B/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 3 2.7 3
7 0 COPARTNER ERA B K H Chan · W Y So 2 19.0 3
8 0 BABY Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 9 15.0 3-1/2
9 0 COPARTNER FIONN H/V/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 7 12.0 3-3/4
10 0 YOUNG SPARKLE A Hamelin · A T Millard 6 30.0 5-1/2
11 0 ALL JOYFUL B M Chadwick · T P Yung 5 21.0 9-1/4
12 0 ODE TO JOY B/XB/TT A Badel · P C Ng 8 41.0 12
— 0 STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT1 H Bowman · K L Man — 11.0 3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-08 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. KING OF THE COURT, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with KUNG FU TEA second and SUNNY BABY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.7 favourite LONDON LUCKYSTAR finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING OF THE COURT—2. KUNG FU TEA+0.5L4. SUNNY BABY+1.25L5. IRON WILL+1.75L6. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+3L7. COPARTNER ERA+3L8. BABY+3.5L9. COPARTNER FIONN+3.75L10. YOUNG SPARKLE+5.5L11. ALL JOYFUL+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LONDON LUCKYSTAR (18.6%) finished 6th — the winner KING OF THE COURT was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 18.6% 5.39 6
2 0 STURDY RUBY 12.1% 8.26 —
3 0 IRON WILL 10.4% 9.58 5
4 0 KUNG FU TEA 9.1% 11.03 2
5 0 SUNNY BABY 8.7% 11.49 4
6 0 COPARTNER FIONN 8.3% 12.00 9
7 0 COPARTNER ERA 7.1% 14.06 7
8 0 ODE TO JOY 6.7% 14.93 12
9 0 KING OF THE COURT 6.5% 15.29 1
10 0 BABY 5.8% 17.20 8
11 0 YOUNG SPARKLE 3.7% 27.06 10
12 0 ALL JOYFUL 2.9% 34.07 11
LONDON LUCKYSTARSTURDY RUBYIRON WILLKUNG FU TEASUNNY BABYCOPARTNER FIONNCOPARTNER ERAODE TO JOYKING OF THE COURT — wonBABYYOUNG SPARKLEALL JOYFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 170.5

PLACE

3 20

4 45

12 47

QUINELLA

3,12 734

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 141

3,12 196.5

4,12 322.5

FORECAST

12,3 1,756

TIERCE

12,3,4 15,423

TRIO

3,4,12 2,548

FIRST 4

3,4,9,12 2,909

QUARTET

12,3,4,9 83,025

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 23.5

3RD DOUBLE

8/3 774.5

8/12 10,945