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Sha Tin · 2023-03-11 · 17:48

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-11 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN EXPRESS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-3/4, with WONDER KIT second and SUPER FORTUNE third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 GOLDEN EXPRESS 1.08.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 2 2.0 1-3/4
2 10 WONDER KIT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 14.0 1-3/4
3 2 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 10.0 3-1/2
4 11 DREAM PURSUER V1 K Teetan · K L Man 4 23.0 3-3/4
5 5 HAPPY MISSION H/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 1 25.0 4-3/4
6 3 SPEEDY MOUSE V Borges · F C Lor 7 30.0 6
7 9 TATTENHAM P1 M L Yeung · P C Ng 6 150.0 6-1/4
8 12 DIAMOND FLARE B R Maia · P F Yiu 3 133.0 6-1/4
9 1 DRAGON'S LUCK H Bowman · D J Whyte 11 3.0 6-1/4
10 4 PHOENIX LIGHT H A Badel · C H Yip 10 14.0 6-3/4
11 7 DIVINE SHINING XB/TT L Currie · K H Ting 9 228.0 7-1/2
12 8 DECISIVE TWELVE TT L Ferraris · W Y So 12 62.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN EXPRESS2. WONDER KIT+1.75L3. SUPER FORTUNE+3.5L4. DREAM PURSUER+3.75L5. HAPPY MISSION+4.75L6. SPEEDY MOUSE+6L7. TATTENHAM+6.25L8. DIAMOND FLARE+6.25L9. DRAGON'S LUCK+6.25L10. PHOENIX LIGHT+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GOLDEN EXPRESS (33.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GOLDEN EXPRESS 33.3% 3.00 1
2 1 DRAGON'S LUCK 24.3% 4.11 9
3 10 WONDER KIT 10.0% 9.97 2
4 2 SUPER FORTUNE 8.2% 12.18 3
5 11 DREAM PURSUER 5.8% 17.31 4
6 3 SPEEDY MOUSE 4.7% 21.16 6
7 5 HAPPY MISSION 4.3% 23.43 5
8 4 PHOENIX LIGHT 3.8% 26.03 10
9 8 DECISIVE TWELVE 3.0% 33.72 12
10 7 DIVINE SHINING 0.9% 110.89 11
11 9 TATTENHAM 0.9% 116.91 7
12 12 DIAMOND FLARE 0.8% 122.04 8
GOLDEN EXPRESS — wonDRAGON'S LUCKWONDER KITSUPER FORTUNEDREAM PURSUERSPEEDY MOUSEHAPPY MISSIONPHOENIX LIGHTDECISIVE TWELVEDIVINE SHININGTATTENHAMDIAMOND FLARE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 20

PLACE

2 25

6 10.5

10 30

QUINELLA

6,10 111

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 42.5

2,10 130.5

6,10 43.5

FORECAST

6,10 193

TIERCE

6,10,2 962

TRIO

2,6,10 347

FIRST 4

2,6,10,11 589

QUARTET

6,10,2,11 6,442

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 12

A2

A3

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,5/2,6,10 3,708

9TH DOUBLE

1/6 43

1/10 65.5

SIX UP

10/1/3/6/1/6 63,712

10,12/1,14/2,3/4,6/1,5/6,10 4,770

6 [F C Lor]

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

6/1/6 422

6/1/10 555