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Sha Tin · 2023-03-11 · 14:02

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C 11 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-11 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. RUN RUN COOL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with NICCONI COUNTY second and CALIFORNIA VANES third. The 2.2 favourite JUNEAU FLASH finished 9th.

Result

Official · 0.56.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 RUN RUN COOL PC 0.56.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 6 4.1 1/2
2 3 NICCONI COUNTY TT H Bowman · C Fownes 10 8.7 1/2
3 5 CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 10.0 3/4
4 6 LIKE THAT V M F Poon · F C Lor 5 35.0 1
5 10 TALENTS SUPREMO XB A Hamelin · R Gibson 4 29.0 1-3/4
6 9 SCOTCH TYCOON M L Yeung · K W Lui 9 51.0 2-1/4
7 11 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT Y L Chung · D A Hayes 2 6.0 2-3/4
8 1 SHOW RESPECT SR1/XB1/TT1 C Y Ho · D J Whyte 1 31.0 2-3/4
9 7 JUNEAU FLASH K Teetan · J Size 8 2.2 3
10 4 JADE PHOENIX CP/TT V Borges · F C Lor 3 31.0 5
11 8 LEAN MASTER TT R Maia · C H Yip 7 124.0 5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUN RUN COOL2. NICCONI COUNTY+0.5L3. CALIFORNIA VANES+0.75L4. LIKE THAT+1L5. TALENTS SUPREMO+1.75L6. SCOTCH TYCOON+2.25L7. TEAM SPIRIT+2.75L8. SHOW RESPECT+2.75L9. JUNEAU FLASH+3L10. JADE PHOENIX+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JUNEAU FLASH (34.2%) finished 9th — the winner RUN RUN COOL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 JUNEAU FLASH 34.2% 2.92 9
2 2 RUN RUN COOL 17.8% 5.61 1
3 3 NICCONI COUNTY 9.7% 10.26 2
4 4 JADE PHOENIX 9.0% 11.08 10
5 5 CALIFORNIA VANES 7.9% 12.68 3
6 1 SHOW RESPECT 5.9% 16.92 8
7 6 LIKE THAT 5.3% 18.87 4
8 11 TEAM SPIRIT 3.5% 28.62 7
9 10 TALENTS SUPREMO 3.2% 31.28 5
10 9 SCOTCH TYCOON 2.5% 40.00 6
11 8 LEAN MASTER 0.9% 110.16 11
JUNEAU FLASHRUN RUN COOL — wonNICCONI COUNTYJADE PHOENIXCALIFORNIA VANESSHOW RESPECTLIKE THATTEAM SPIRITTALENTS SUPREMOSCOTCH TYCOONLEAN MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 41.5

PLACE

2 15.5

3 24.5

5 26.5

QUINELLA

2,3 200.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 63.5

2,5 63

3,5 120

FORECAST

2,3 292

TIERCE

2,3,5 2,116

TRIO

2,3,5 480

FIRST 4

2,3,5,6 1,480

QUARTET

2,3,5,6 18,650

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

7/2 594

7/3 147

3 PICK 1

A1 14.5

A3

A2