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Sha Tin · 2023-03-11 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-11 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. WINNING STEPS, ridden by A Badel and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with GO GO SIXTEEN second and FLYING MOJITO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite FLYING MOJITO finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.48.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC 1.48.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P C Ng 7 11.0 HD
2 12 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 12 5.9 HD
3 4 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly CP/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 13 2.9 1/2
4 9 PALACE PAL Closed strongly H Bentley · T P Yung 6 9.9 1/2
5 7 GOLD TACK Closed strongly H Bowman · A T Millard 11 6.5 3/4
5 11 VINCY Closed strongly SR2/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 18.0 3/4
7 5 ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly V R Maia · P F Yiu 3 14.0 1-3/4
8 2 AMAZING TEENS Led early P-/H/TT L Currie · J Size 10 37.0 2-3/4
9 3 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 33.0 3
10 13 PAKISTAN FRIEND TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 15.0 4-3/4
11 6 BOOM ALLIANCE SR/XB/TT C Y Ho · D J Whyte 4 22.0 5
12 1 LOOKING COOL PC- K C Leung · F C Lor 9 17.0 5-3/4
13 8 FUNCTION PATCH H/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 1 79.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING STEPS2. GO GO SIXTEEN+0.2L3. FLYING MOJITO+0.5L4. PALACE PAL+0.5L5. GOLD TACK+0.75L5. VINCY+0.75L7. ROBOT WARRIOR+1.75L8. AMAZING TEENS+2.75L9. KYRUS UNICORN+3L10. PAKISTAN FRIEND+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLYING MOJITO (26.0%) finished 3rd — the winner WINNING STEPS was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 FLYING MOJITO 26.0% 3.84 3
2 7 GOLD TACK 13.8% 7.23 5
3 8 FUNCTION PATCH 7.6% 13.24 13
4 11 VINCY 7.4% 13.47 5
5 12 GO GO SIXTEEN 7.0% 14.25 2
6 2 AMAZING TEENS 6.6% 15.20 8
7 6 BOOM ALLIANCE 6.3% 15.85 11
8 13 PAKISTAN FRIEND 5.5% 18.27 10
9 10 WINNING STEPS 4.5% 22.30 1
10 9 PALACE PAL 4.5% 22.44 4
11 5 ROBOT WARRIOR 4.0% 24.70 7
12 3 KYRUS UNICORN 3.5% 28.21 9
13 1 LOOKING COOL 3.2% 30.97 12
FLYING MOJITOGOLD TACKFUNCTION PATCHVINCYGO GO SIXTEENAMAZING TEENSBOOM ALLIANCEPAKISTAN FRIENDWINNING STEPS — wonPALACE PALROBOT WARRIORKYRUS UNICORNLOOKING COOL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 112

PLACE

4 14.5

10 33.5

12 21

QUINELLA

10,12 433

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 91

4,12 43

10,12 143.5

FORECAST

10,12 725

TIERCE

10,12,4 2,854

TRIO

4,10,12 539

FIRST 4

4,9,10,12 973

QUARTET

10,12,4,9 25,720

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 30.5

A3

4TH DOUBLE

14/10 382

14/12 77