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Sha Tin · 2023-03-11 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC 1.48.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P C Ng 7 11.0 HD
2 0 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 12 5.9 HD
3 0 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly CP/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 13 2.9 1/2
4 0 PALACE PAL Closed strongly H Bentley · T P Yung 6 9.9 1/2
5 0 VINCY Closed strongly SR2/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 18.0 3/4
5 0 GOLD TACK Closed strongly H Bowman · A T Millard 11 6.5 3/4
7 0 ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly V R Maia · P F Yiu 3 14.0 1-3/4
8 0 AMAZING TEENS Led early P-/H/TT L Currie · J Size 10 37.0 2-3/4
9 0 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 33.0 3
10 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 15.0 4-3/4
11 0 BOOM ALLIANCE SR/XB/TT C Y Ho · D J Whyte 4 22.0 5
12 0 LOOKING COOL PC- K C Leung · F C Lor 9 17.0 5-3/4
13 0 FUNCTION PATCH H/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 1 79.0 11

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-11 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. WINNING STEPS, ridden by A Badel and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with GO GO SIXTEEN second and FLYING MOJITO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite FLYING MOJITO finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING STEPS—2. GO GO SIXTEEN+0.2L3. FLYING MOJITO+0.5L4. PALACE PAL+0.5L5. VINCY+0.75L5. GOLD TACK+0.75L7. ROBOT WARRIOR+1.75L8. AMAZING TEENS+2.75L9. KYRUS UNICORN+3L10. PAKISTAN FRIEND+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLYING MOJITO (26.0%) finished 3rd — the winner WINNING STEPS was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLYING MOJITO 26.0% 3.84 3
2 0 GOLD TACK 13.8% 7.23 5
3 0 FUNCTION PATCH 7.6% 13.24 13
4 0 VINCY 7.4% 13.47 5
5 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 7.0% 14.25 2
6 0 AMAZING TEENS 6.6% 15.20 8
7 0 BOOM ALLIANCE 6.3% 15.85 11
8 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND 5.5% 18.27 10
9 0 WINNING STEPS 4.5% 22.30 1
10 0 PALACE PAL 4.5% 22.44 4
11 0 ROBOT WARRIOR 4.0% 24.70 7
12 0 KYRUS UNICORN 3.5% 28.21 9
13 0 LOOKING COOL 3.2% 30.97 12
FLYING MOJITOGOLD TACKFUNCTION PATCHVINCYGO GO SIXTEENAMAZING TEENSBOOM ALLIANCEPAKISTAN FRIENDWINNING STEPS — wonPALACE PALROBOT WARRIORKYRUS UNICORNLOOKING COOL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 112

PLACE

4 14.5

10 33.5

12 21

QUINELLA

10,12 433

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 91

4,12 43

10,12 143.5

FORECAST

10,12 725

TIERCE

10,12,4 2,854

TRIO

4,10,12 539

FIRST 4

4,9,10,12 973

QUARTET

10,12,4,9 25,720

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 30.5

A3 —

4TH DOUBLE

14/10 382

14/12 77