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Sha Tin · 2023-03-11 · 14:32

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. REGENT GLORY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with TURIN WARRIOR second and CHARMANDER third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite OWNERS' PRAISE finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.22.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 REGENT GLORY Wire to wire 1.22.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 1 6.4 1-1/4
2 6 TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly B/XB A Hamelin · R Gibson 10 32.0 1-1/4
3 5 CHARMANDER Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 7 24.0 1-1/2
4 10 HERO ICON TT H Bowman · K L Man 8 7.0 1-3/4
5 2 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D J Hall 6 17.0 2-1/2
6 3 FAST BUCK B Z Purton · J Size 4 4.5 2-3/4
7 7 D STAR B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 6.1 3
8 4 OWNERS' PRAISE K C Leung · W Y So 2 3.3 3
9 13 TAILOR MADE Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 9 122.0 3-1/4
10 11 STRATHPEFFER Closed strongly H/SR M L Yeung · D J Whyte 14 76.0 4-3/4
11 8 TIER GOODY TT R Maia · C H Yip 5 169.0 5-3/4
12 1 DECRYPT XB/TT A Badel · P C Ng 11 15.0 6-1/4
13 12 POLYMER GLORIOUS SR H N Wong · K H Ting 13 259.0 8
14 9 UPTREND H/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 12 115.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REGENT GLORY2. TURIN WARRIOR+1.25L3. CHARMANDER+1.5L4. HERO ICON+1.75L5. RED BRICK FIGHTER+2.5L6. FAST BUCK+2.75L7. D STAR+3L8. OWNERS' PRAISE+3L9. TAILOR MADE+3.25L10. STRATHPEFFER+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FAST BUCK (31.7%) finished 6th — the winner REGENT GLORY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 FAST BUCK 31.7% 3.15 6
2 4 OWNERS' PRAISE 17.6% 5.67 8
3 7 D STAR 10.0% 9.96 7
4 14 REGENT GLORY 8.8% 11.37 1
5 10 HERO ICON 7.8% 12.76 4
6 2 RED BRICK FIGHTER 6.6% 15.19 5
7 6 TURIN WARRIOR 6.6% 15.24 2
8 1 DECRYPT 4.3% 23.10 12
9 13 TAILOR MADE 1.9% 52.14 9
10 11 STRATHPEFFER 1.4% 72.31 10
11 12 POLYMER GLORIOUS 1.0% 104.51 13
12 5 CHARMANDER 0.9% 112.95 3
13 9 UPTREND 0.7% 139.00 14
14 8 TIER GOODY 0.6% 156.27 11
FAST BUCKOWNERS' PRAISED STARREGENT GLORY — wonHERO ICONRED BRICK FIGHTERTURIN WARRIORDECRYPTTAILOR MADESTRATHPEFFERPOLYMER GLORIOUSCHARMANDERUPTRENDTIER GOODY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 64

PLACE

5 62.5

6 69.5

14 22

QUINELLA

6,14 1,675.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 1,107.5

5,14 227.5

6,14 293.5

FORECAST

14,6 1,772

TIERCE

14,6,5 25,585

TRIO

5,6,14 9,031

FIRST 4

5,6,10,14 7,333

QUARTET

14,6,5,10 189,226

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,5/5,6,14 416,210

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 31

A1

3RD DOUBLE

2/6 131.5

2/14 357.5