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Sha Tin · 2023-03-11 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-11 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RED LION, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with CHIU CHOW SPIRIT second and CAPITAL LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 RED LION Closed strongly 1.21.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 4 2.4 1-1/4
2 5 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly TT A Badel · T P Yung 7 3.7 1-1/4
3 2 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 12.0 1-3/4
4 14 TAJ DRAGON Closed strongly M L Yeung · P C Ng 13 131.0 2
5 11 ALL RICHES Led early CP-/V1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 6.8 2-3/4
6 9 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 10 22.0 3-1/2
7 4 THESIS CP/TT H Bowman · R Gibson 9 13.0 4-1/4
8 10 MASTER TORNADO XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 14 39.0 5-1/2
9 3 MY ECSTATIC TT C L Chau · F C Lor 1 31.0 5-1/2
10 6 ATOMIC BEAUTY CP-/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 147.0 6
11 12 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly H N Wong · K W Lui 11 217.0 6-3/4
12 13 SINGAPORE SUNSHINE BO/XB H Bentley · A T Millard 2 112.0 6-3/4
13 8 SETANTA B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 11.0 7-3/4
14 7 PEGASUS HERO H- V Borges · Y S Tsui 3 227.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED LION2. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+1.25L3. CAPITAL LEGEND+1.75L4. TAJ DRAGON+2L5. ALL RICHES+2.75L6. MALDIVES+3.5L7. THESIS+4.25L8. MASTER TORNADO+5.5L9. MY ECSTATIC+5.5L10. ATOMIC BEAUTY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RED LION (33.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 RED LION 33.3% 3.00 1
2 2 CAPITAL LEGEND 10.3% 9.69 3
3 8 SETANTA 10.1% 9.87 13
4 5 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 8.6% 11.67 2
5 10 MASTER TORNADO 8.4% 11.86 8
6 11 ALL RICHES 7.8% 12.82 5
7 9 MALDIVES 7.3% 13.75 6
8 4 THESIS 3.8% 26.04 7
9 3 MY ECSTATIC 2.9% 34.70 9
10 12 WIN WIN FIGHTER 2.2% 46.19 11
11 14 TAJ DRAGON 1.8% 54.61 4
12 13 SINGAPORE SUNSHINE 1.3% 75.09 12
13 7 PEGASUS HERO 1.1% 87.17 14
14 6 ATOMIC BEAUTY 1.0% 101.38 10
RED LION — wonCAPITAL LEGENDSETANTACHIU CHOW SPIRITMASTER TORNADOALL RICHESMALDIVESTHESISMY ECSTATICWIN WIN FIGHTERTAJ DRAGONSINGAPORE SUNSHINEPEGASUS HEROATOMIC BEAUTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 24

PLACE

1 12

2 28

5 14.5

QUINELLA

1,5 51

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 47.5

1,5 25.5

2,5 87.5

FORECAST

1,5 97

TIERCE

1,5,2 481

TRIO

1,2,5 149

FIRST 4

1,2,5,14 2,303

QUARTET

1,5,2,14 20,052

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14.5

A3

A2

8TH DOUBLE

6/1 216

6/5 67.5