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Sha Tin · 2023-03-11 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RUN RUN BUDDY Wire to wire CP 1.21.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 14 5.4 SH
2 0 UNIVERSAL HORIZON Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 7.0 SH
3 0 WIDE BLUE YONDER Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 2 4.3 1-3/4
4 0 NORDIC COMBINED Closed strongly B/TT2 A Hamelin · R Gibson 13 73.0 2-1/2
5 0 WIN WIN Closed strongly B- C L Chau · T P Yung 12 51.0 2-1/2
6 0 BEAT HOLLOW M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 8 110.0 3-1/4
7 0 HORSESAIN BOLT B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 13.0 3-1/2
8 0 PUBLICIST H Z Purton · P C Ng 11 16.0 3-1/2
9 0 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly V/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 4 3.4 4-3/4
10 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · K L Man 10 15.0 7-1/4
11 0 FIGHTING STAR B A Badel · C H Yip 7 33.0 9-1/4
12 0 FAULDS B-/XB/V1/TT K Teetan · J Richards 5 13.0 13
13 0 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · A T Millard 3 131.0 14
14 0 CLASSIC POSH V- Y L Chung · D J Hall 9 110.0 20-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RUN RUN BUDDY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with UNIVERSAL HORIZON second and WIDE BLUE YONDER third. The winner led throughout. The 3.4 favourite SMILING COLLECTOR finished 9th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUN RUN BUDDY—2. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+0.1L3. WIDE BLUE YONDER+1.75L4. NORDIC COMBINED+2.5L5. WIN WIN+2.5L6. BEAT HOLLOW+3.25L7. HORSESAIN BOLT+3.5L8. PUBLICIST+3.5L9. SMILING COLLECTOR+4.75L10. STAR OF YUEN LONG+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PUBLICIST (16.2%) finished 8th — the winner RUN RUN BUDDY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PUBLICIST 16.2% 6.17 8
2 0 RUN RUN BUDDY 13.7% 7.30 1
3 0 SMILING COLLECTOR 12.6% 7.96 9
4 0 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 12.2% 8.18 2
5 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG 8.5% 11.74 10
6 0 WIDE BLUE YONDER 7.9% 12.73 3
7 0 FAULDS 6.6% 15.24 12
8 0 HORSESAIN BOLT 5.7% 17.41 7
9 0 FIGHTING STAR 5.7% 17.59 11
10 0 WIN WIN 3.4% 29.73 5
11 0 NORDIC COMBINED 2.4% 42.24 4
12 0 ULTRA EXPRESS 1.9% 51.73 13
13 0 CLASSIC POSH 1.8% 54.25 14
14 0 BEAT HOLLOW 1.4% 70.30 6
PUBLICISTRUN RUN BUDDY — wonSMILING COLLECTORUNIVERSAL HORIZONSTAR OF YUEN LONGWIDE BLUE YONDERFAULDSHORSESAIN BOLTFIGHTING STARWIN WINNORDIC COMBINEDULTRA EXPRESSCLASSIC POSHBEAT HOLLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 54.5

PLACE

4 23.5

6 24

7 17

QUINELLA

4,6 207.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 77

4,7 52.5

6,7 58.5

FORECAST

6,4 514

TIERCE

6,4,7 2,079

TRIO

4,6,7 312

FIRST 4

4,6,7,13 4,289

QUARTET

6,4,7,13 84,593

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 25

A1 —

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,9/4,6,7 8,688

7TH DOUBLE

3/4 42.5

3/6 279