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Sha Tin · 2023-03-11 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RUN RUN BUDDY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with UNIVERSAL HORIZON second and WIDE BLUE YONDER third. The winner led throughout. The 3.4 favourite SMILING COLLECTOR finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.21.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 RUN RUN BUDDY Wire to wire CP 1.21.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 14 5.4 SH
2 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 7.0 SH
3 7 WIDE BLUE YONDER Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 2 4.3 1-3/4
4 13 NORDIC COMBINED Closed strongly B/TT2 A Hamelin · R Gibson 13 73.0 2-1/2
5 10 WIN WIN Closed strongly B- C L Chau · T P Yung 12 51.0 2-1/2
6 11 BEAT HOLLOW M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 8 110.0 3-1/4
7 2 HORSESAIN BOLT B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 13.0 3-1/2
8 5 PUBLICIST H Z Purton · P C Ng 11 16.0 3-1/2
9 8 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly V/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 4 3.4 4-3/4
10 14 STAR OF YUEN LONG Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · K L Man 10 15.0 7-1/4
11 12 FIGHTING STAR B A Badel · C H Yip 7 33.0 9-1/4
12 1 FAULDS B-/XB/V1/TT K Teetan · J Richards 5 13.0 13
13 3 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · A T Millard 3 131.0 14
14 9 CLASSIC POSH V- Y L Chung · D J Hall 9 110.0 20-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUN RUN BUDDY2. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+0.1L3. WIDE BLUE YONDER+1.75L4. NORDIC COMBINED+2.5L5. WIN WIN+2.5L6. BEAT HOLLOW+3.25L7. HORSESAIN BOLT+3.5L8. PUBLICIST+3.5L9. SMILING COLLECTOR+4.75L10. STAR OF YUEN LONG+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PUBLICIST (16.2%) finished 8th — the winner RUN RUN BUDDY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 PUBLICIST 16.2% 6.17 8
2 6 RUN RUN BUDDY 13.7% 7.30 1
3 8 SMILING COLLECTOR 12.6% 7.96 9
4 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 12.2% 8.18 2
5 14 STAR OF YUEN LONG 8.5% 11.74 10
6 7 WIDE BLUE YONDER 7.9% 12.73 3
7 1 FAULDS 6.6% 15.24 12
8 2 HORSESAIN BOLT 5.7% 17.41 7
9 12 FIGHTING STAR 5.7% 17.59 11
10 10 WIN WIN 3.4% 29.73 5
11 13 NORDIC COMBINED 2.4% 42.24 4
12 3 ULTRA EXPRESS 1.9% 51.73 13
13 9 CLASSIC POSH 1.8% 54.25 14
14 11 BEAT HOLLOW 1.4% 70.30 6
PUBLICISTRUN RUN BUDDY — wonSMILING COLLECTORUNIVERSAL HORIZONSTAR OF YUEN LONGWIDE BLUE YONDERFAULDSHORSESAIN BOLTFIGHTING STARWIN WINNORDIC COMBINEDULTRA EXPRESSCLASSIC POSHBEAT HOLLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 54.5

PLACE

4 23.5

6 24

7 17

QUINELLA

4,6 207.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 77

4,7 52.5

6,7 58.5

FORECAST

6,4 514

TIERCE

6,4,7 2,079

TRIO

4,6,7 312

FIRST 4

4,6,7,13 4,289

QUARTET

6,4,7,13 84,593

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 25

A1

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,9/4,6,7 8,688

7TH DOUBLE

3/4 42.5

3/6 279