Happy Valley · 2023-03-22 · 22:18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-22 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SAVAQUIN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with GORYTUS second and NEARLY FINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SAVAQUIN Closed strongly P- 1.39.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 5 | 3.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | GORYTUS Closed strongly XB/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 9 | 6.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 8.2 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | SAVVY NINE B/XB R Maia · D J Whyte | R Maia | D J Whyte | 6 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | RED MAJESTY B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 7 | 30.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early S De Sousa · Y S Tsui | S De Sousa | Y S Tsui | 3 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 2 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | PACKING AWARD H L Hewitson · L Ho | L Hewitson | L Ho | 8 | 5.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 11 | 18.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 10 | CELESTIAL POWER V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 4 | 24.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SAVAQUIN | 18.3% | 5.47 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT | 15.5% | 6.46 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | BERLIN TANGO | 14.8% | 6.76 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 | GORYTUS | 11.5% | 8.73 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | PACKING AWARD | 10.2% | 9.76 | 9 |
| 6 | 3 | TELECOM FIGHTERS | 8.3% | 12.08 | 7 |
| 7 | 9 | NEARLY FINE | 5.8% | 17.19 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 5.3% | 19.04 | 10 |
| 9 | 1 | SAVVY NINE | 3.9% | 25.86 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | RED MAJESTY | 3.3% | 30.10 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | CELESTIAL POWER | 3.2% | 30.92 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 30
PLACE
7 14.5
8 24.5
9 28.5
QUINELLA
7,8 90
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 41.5
7,9 43
8,9 81
FORECAST
7,8 197
TIERCE
7,8,9 655
TRIO
7,8,9 163
FIRST 4
2,7,8,9 347
QUARTET
7,8,9,2 4,584
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19.5
7TH DOUBLE
6/7 77.5
6/8 34.5