Happy Valley · 2023-03-22 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-22 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. RIGHT AS RAIN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with HAPPY ANGEL second and PERFECT TO GREAT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite FLYING SILVER finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B 1.49.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 5 | 7.4 | N |
| 2 | 10 | HAPPY ANGEL V-/B2/TT- A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 4 | 6.1 | N |
| 3 | 8 | PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly SR/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 1 | 8.2 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 7 | 5.2 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | FLYING SILVER Closed strongly CP/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 8 | 3.3 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | BLASTOISE L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 6 | 42.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | LUCKY DIAMOND B/TT L Currie · K H Ting | L Currie | K H Ting | 12 | 13.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | COPARTNER FIONN Closed strongly H-/V-/SR1/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 11 | 31.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | SURREALISM Closed strongly B L Ferraris · R Gibson | L Ferraris | R Gibson | 10 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | PASSING FASHION XB/TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 2 | 31.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | DEAR SIBLING Led early B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 3 | 44.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | CHATER PINS SR C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 9 | 11.0 | 13-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FLYING SILVER | 23.4% | 4.28 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | RIGHT AS RAIN | 15.5% | 6.46 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | PERFECT TO GREAT | 13.8% | 7.23 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | REACH GOAL | 12.9% | 7.76 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | HAPPY ANGEL | 12.7% | 7.86 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | CHATER PINS | 8.3% | 12.07 | 12 |
| 7 | 6 | SURREALISM | 3.6% | 27.49 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | COPARTNER FIONN | 2.6% | 38.95 | 8 |
| 9 | 12 | PASSING FASHION | 2.3% | 43.10 | 10 |
| 10 | 2 | LUCKY DIAMOND | 2.0% | 49.70 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | DEAR SIBLING | 1.6% | 64.17 | 11 |
| 12 | 3 | BLASTOISE | 1.4% | 73.11 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 74
PLACE
5 23
8 26.5
10 21
QUINELLA
5,10 217
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 88
5,10 75.5
8,10 71.5
FORECAST
5,10 545
TIERCE
5,10,8 2,894
TRIO
5,8,10 460
FIRST 4
5,8,9,10 415
QUARTET
5,10,8,9 10,930
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 22
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
5/5 184.5
5/10 37