Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2023-03-22 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MY INTELLIGENT, ridden by H T Mo and trained by L Ho, won by N, with VICTORY SCHOLARS second and WIND SPEEDER third. The 2.3 favourite FLYING ON THE TURF finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MY INTELLIGENT V2/TT 1.09.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · L Ho 3 13.0 N
2 2 VICTORY SCHOLARS V Y L Chung · C Fownes 9 7.5 N
3 3 WIND SPEEDER H Bowman · Y S Tsui 7 12.0 1-1/4
4 6 TIMESTORM XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Hall 8 6.7 2
5 1 FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 2 2.3 2-1/4
6 8 LYRICAL MOTION TT M Chadwick · W Y So 4 12.0 3-3/4
7 7 NOBLE ONE TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 9.3 4-1/4
8 9 CRAIG'S MASTER SR/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 12 77.0 5-1/4
9 4 REGENCY STAR CP M F Poon · C S Shum 1 17.0 6-1/2
10 11 BIRDSVILLE SR/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 10 35.0 10
11 10 FIRE BALL A Hamelin · C H Yip 11 32.0 13
12 5 DINOSAUR BOY B1 C L Chau · T P Yung 5 33.0 14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MY INTELLIGENT2. VICTORY SCHOLARS+0.05L3. WIND SPEEDER+1.25L4. TIMESTORM+2L5. FLYING ON THE TURF+2.25L6. LYRICAL MOTION+3.75L7. NOBLE ONE+4.25L8. CRAIG'S MASTER+5.25L9. REGENCY STAR+6.5L10. BIRDSVILLE+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLYING ON THE TURF (29.2%) finished 5th — the winner MY INTELLIGENT was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FLYING ON THE TURF 29.2% 3.42 5
2 6 TIMESTORM 11.7% 8.52 4
3 2 VICTORY SCHOLARS 11.1% 9.03 2
4 7 NOBLE ONE 10.2% 9.80 7
5 8 LYRICAL MOTION 9.1% 10.94 6
6 3 WIND SPEEDER 8.9% 11.20 3
7 11 BIRDSVILLE 4.7% 21.18 10
8 5 DINOSAUR BOY 4.2% 23.53 12
9 4 REGENCY STAR 3.7% 26.71 9
10 12 MY INTELLIGENT 3.6% 27.53 1
11 10 FIRE BALL 2.2% 44.87 11
12 9 CRAIG'S MASTER 1.1% 91.63 8
FLYING ON THE TURFTIMESTORMVICTORY SCHOLARSNOBLE ONELYRICAL MOTIONWIND SPEEDERBIRDSVILLEDINOSAUR BOYREGENCY STARMY INTELLIGENT — wonFIRE BALLCRAIG'S MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 133.5

PLACE

2 25

3 28

12 32

QUINELLA

2,12 407.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 113.5

2,12 136

3,12 213

FORECAST

12,2 841

TIERCE

12,2,3 11,130

TRIO

2,3,12 1,763

FIRST 4

2,3,6,12 1,473

QUARTET

12,2,3,6 41,925

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,8,10/2,3,12 105,738

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 29.5

4TH DOUBLE

5/2 114

5/12 978.5