Sha Tin · 2023-04-02 · 13:46

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-02 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SPIRITED EXPRESS, ridden by A Badel and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with AMAZING VICTORY second and BOURBONAIRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite CALIFORNIA TEN finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.37.39

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	SPIRITED EXPRESS Closed strongly B 1.37.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P F Yiu	A Badel	P F Yiu	4	123 lb	5.4	N
2	8	AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly H K Teetan · L Ho	K Teetan	L Ho	3	117 lb	3.9	N
3	4	BOURBONAIRE Closed strongly H A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	6	126 lb	8.3	N
4	6	CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	7	124 lb	2.8	3/4
5	3	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	5	126 lb	7.1	1-1/2
6	2	CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT R Maia · K W Lui	R Maia	K W Lui	2	131 lb	37.0	4
7	5	LOOKING GREAT Closed strongly CP2/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor	S De Sousa	F C Lor	8	126 lb	39.0	4-1/2
8	1	TURIN REDSUN B/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte	Y L Chung	D J Whyte	1	128 lb	9.0	6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick CALIFORNIA TEN (20.2%) finished 4th — the winner SPIRITED EXPRESS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	CALIFORNIA TEN	20.2%	4.95	4	2.8
2	2	CHANCHENG PRINCE	18.8%	5.32	6	37.0
3	8	AMAZING VICTORY	18.0%	5.57	2	3.9
4	7	SPIRITED EXPRESS	12.6%	7.93	1	5.4
5	3	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S	9.8%	10.18	5	7.1
6	5	LOOKING GREAT	9.2%	10.83	7	39.0
7	1	TURIN REDSUN	8.5%	11.82	8	9.0
8	4	BOURBONAIRE	2.9%	34.09	3	8.3

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 54.5

PLACE

4 25.5

7 17

8 15.5

QUINELLA

7,8 112

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 63.5

4,8 51

7,8 38

FORECAST

7,8 178

TIERCE

7,8,4 1,240

TRIO

4,7,8 184

FIRST 4

4,6,7,8 136

QUARTET

7,8,4,6 4,186

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/7 443

8/8 58.5

3 PICK 1

A2 23

A3 —

A1 —

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