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Sha Tin · 2023-04-02 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-02 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. ALACRITY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 3/4, with YOUNG BRILLIANT second and NICHOLSON RETURNS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ALACRITY Closed strongly TT 1.49.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 14 3.2 3/4
2 14 YOUNG BRILLIANT B1 V Borges · C H Yip 11 133.0 3/4
3 9 NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall 8 5.1 1-3/4
4 4 ESCAPE ROUTE H L Currie · J Size 10 18.0 2-1/2
5 10 BULLETPROOF V R Maia · P F Yiu 3 54.0 3-1/4
6 13 SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 7.8 4-1/4
7 1 LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 7.7 4-3/4
8 7 INTREPID WINNER B H Bentley · A T Millard 1 18.0 5-1/2
9 3 ENJOYING B/TT C L Chau · W Y So 2 34.0 5-1/2
10 11 PRINCE ALEX CP/SR A Badel · D J Whyte 6 9.6 5-1/2
11 5 ROMANTIC CHARM B/TT S De Sousa · C S Shum 12 35.0 6-1/4
12 8 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H M Chadwick · P F Yiu 7 18.0 7-1/4
13 12 SATIRICAL GLORY Led early H K Teetan · D A Hayes 9 12.0 17-1/2
14 6 SUPERBELLA B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 13 75.0 20-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALACRITY2. YOUNG BRILLIANT+0.75L3. NICHOLSON RETURNS+1.75L4. ESCAPE ROUTE+2.5L5. BULLETPROOF+3.25L6. SMILING TIME+4.25L7. LA CITY BLANCHE+4.75L8. INTREPID WINNER+5.5L9. ENJOYING+5.5L10. PRINCE ALEX+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ALACRITY (17.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ALACRITY 17.8% 5.62 1
2 9 NICHOLSON RETURNS 14.0% 7.12 3
3 13 SMILING TIME 12.0% 8.30 6
4 5 ROMANTIC CHARM 10.0% 10.05 11
5 12 SATIRICAL GLORY 9.7% 10.35 13
6 4 ESCAPE ROUTE 5.5% 18.29 4
7 11 PRINCE ALEX 5.0% 19.80 10
8 3 ENJOYING 4.8% 20.80 9
9 10 BULLETPROOF 4.8% 20.98 5
10 7 INTREPID WINNER 4.5% 22.04 8
11 1 LA CITY BLANCHE 4.5% 22.41 7
12 8 PRECISE EXPRESS 4.0% 24.95 12
13 6 SUPERBELLA 2.7% 37.42 14
14 14 YOUNG BRILLIANT 0.7% 137.67 2
ALACRITY — wonNICHOLSON RETURNSSMILING TIMEROMANTIC CHARMSATIRICAL GLORYESCAPE ROUTEPRINCE ALEXENJOYINGBULLETPROOFINTREPID WINNERLA CITY BLANCHEPRECISE EXPRESSSUPERBELLAYOUNG BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 32

PLACE

2 16

9 20.5

14 246.5

QUINELLA

2,14 2,430

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 41.5

2,14 780

9,14 1,046.5

FORECAST

2,14 3,188

TIERCE

2,14,9 27,435

TRIO

2,9,14 2,860

FIRST 4

2,4,9,14 11,302

QUARTET

2,14,9,4 324,314

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19.5

A2

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,9/2,9,14 189,757

9TH DOUBLE

9/2 403.5

9/14 1,197.5

SIX UP

2,13/3,10/3,8/9,11/6,9/2,14 21,689

13/10/8/11/9/2 2,837,277

1 [Z Purton]

7 [P F Yiu], 13 [J Richards]

TREBLE

11/9/2 1,774

11/9/14 8,051