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Sha Tin · 2023-04-02 · 13:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-02 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THE GOOD DEAL, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with DAY DAY RICH second and HEAVENLY THOUGHT third. The 2.1 favourite INSPIRING CITY finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.10.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 THE GOOD DEAL TT 1.10.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 12 6.1 N
2 9 DAY DAY RICH B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 10 13.0 N
3 11 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 15.0 2-3/4
4 13 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT S De Sousa · W Y So 11 25.0 2-3/4
5 7 ENCORE B1/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 13 37.0 3
6 10 CALL ME LU TT H T Mo · L Ho 9 125.0 3-3/4
7 6 GOLDEN MISSION B/TT C L Chau · C W Chang 1 9.7 4-1/4
8 3 INSPIRING CITY Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 2.1 4-3/4
9 2 HAPPILY FRIENDS V M Chadwick · W Y So 4 36.0 5-1/2
10 12 HANDSOME GUYS TT A Badel · C Fownes 6 8.1 7-1/2
11 1 HAPPY FOREVER V/TT K C Leung · K L Man 7 12.0 10-1/2
12 4 ALL IS READY B R Maia · P F Yiu 5 34.0 11
13 5 SMILING MOON B H N Wong · K H Ting 2 119.0 14-1/4
0 SUPER CLASS V Borges · A T Millard
0 FANTASY SPRING H Bentley · Y S Tsui
14 DASHING GENIUS Y L Chung · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE GOOD DEAL2. DAY DAY RICH+0.05L3. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+2.75L4. STRIVE FOR GLORY+2.75L5. ENCORE+3L6. CALL ME LU+3.75L7. GOLDEN MISSION+4.25L8. INSPIRING CITY+4.75L9. HAPPILY FRIENDS+5.5L10. HANDSOME GUYS+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick INSPIRING CITY (26.8%) finished 8th — the winner THE GOOD DEAL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 INSPIRING CITY 26.8% 3.74 8
2 6 GOLDEN MISSION 12.0% 8.33 7
3 8 THE GOOD DEAL 9.0% 11.08 1
4 12 HANDSOME GUYS 8.4% 11.95 10
5 13 STRIVE FOR GLORY 7.1% 14.06 4
6 4 ALL IS READY 7.1% 14.12 12
7 1 HAPPY FOREVER 6.8% 14.61 11
8 9 DAY DAY RICH 5.8% 17.31 2
9 11 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 5.3% 18.93 3
10 7 ENCORE 4.7% 21.14 5
11 2 HAPPILY FRIENDS 4.0% 24.88 9
12 10 CALL ME LU 1.8% 54.32 6
13 5 SMILING MOON 1.1% 87.43 13
INSPIRING CITYGOLDEN MISSIONTHE GOOD DEAL — wonHANDSOME GUYSSTRIVE FOR GLORYALL IS READYHAPPY FOREVERDAY DAY RICHHEAVENLY THOUGHTENCOREHAPPILY FRIENDSCALL ME LUSMILING MOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 61.5

PLACE

8 20.5

9 45

11 32

QUINELLA

8,9 424.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 121

8,11 103

9,11 233.5

FORECAST

8,9 801

TIERCE

8,9,11 6,921

TRIO

8,9,11 1,719

FIRST 4

8,9,11,13 5,538

QUARTET

8,9,11,13 86,053

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

13/8 396.5

13/9 79.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,8,13/8,9,11 1,191,384

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 26.5

A2