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Sha Tin · 2023-04-02 · 15:12

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-02 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SPEED FAY FAY, ridden by A Badel and trained by A T Millard, won by SH, with HAPPY FOR ALL second and BLUE MARLIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite HAPPY FOR ALL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.23.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly B 1.23.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · A T Millard 4 7.8 SH
2 2 HAPPY FOR ALL Closed strongly CP/H2/TT Z Purton · J Richards 7 2.7 SH
3 5 BLUE MARLIN Closed strongly H H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 9.2 1/2
4 14 CHARMING STEED TT C Wong · C Fownes 10 86.0 1-1/4
5 8 BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly B R Maia · C H Yip 5 132.0 2-1/4
6 11 TURTLE AGAIN Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 6 74.0 2-1/2
7 9 JOYFUL GENIUS L Ferraris · D J Hall 1 6.5 2-1/2
8 6 DRAGON STAR B/XB Y L Chung · P C Ng 2 86.0 2-3/4
9 1 DREAM PURSUER V K C Leung · K L Man 8 8.8 4-3/4
10 12 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · W Y So 14 19.0 4-3/4
11 10 REGENT GLORY Led early K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 5.9 5-1/4
12 7 TRAVEL GUIDE XB/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 11 128.0 7-3/4
13 3 HELENE WISDOM STAR B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 12 14.0 9
14 4 SEIZE THE DREAM B- H T Mo · Y S Tsui 13 174.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPEED FAY FAY2. HAPPY FOR ALL+0.1L3. BLUE MARLIN+0.5L4. CHARMING STEED+1.25L5. BROTHER PEARL+2.25L6. TURTLE AGAIN+2.5L7. JOYFUL GENIUS+2.5L8. DRAGON STAR+2.75L9. DREAM PURSUER+4.75L10. JIANGXI STAMINA+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JOYFUL GENIUS (22.7%) finished 7th — the winner SPEED FAY FAY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 JOYFUL GENIUS 22.7% 4.40 7
2 2 HAPPY FOR ALL 20.1% 4.97 2
3 10 REGENT GLORY 16.7% 5.98 11
4 13 SPEED FAY FAY 8.3% 12.09 1
5 3 HELENE WISDOM STAR 8.1% 12.34 13
6 1 DREAM PURSUER 6.2% 16.19 9
7 5 BLUE MARLIN 5.3% 19.00 3
8 14 CHARMING STEED 3.7% 27.01 4
9 12 JIANGXI STAMINA 3.6% 27.82 10
10 6 DRAGON STAR 1.3% 76.99 8
11 7 TRAVEL GUIDE 1.1% 92.96 12
12 4 SEIZE THE DREAM 1.0% 99.85 14
13 11 TURTLE AGAIN 1.0% 103.20 6
14 8 BROTHER PEARL 1.0% 104.02 5
JOYFUL GENIUSHAPPY FOR ALLREGENT GLORYSPEED FAY FAY — wonHELENE WISDOM STARDREAM PURSUERBLUE MARLINCHARMING STEEDJIANGXI STAMINADRAGON STARTRAVEL GUIDESEIZE THE DREAMTURTLE AGAINBROTHER PEARL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 78

PLACE

2 13.5

5 31

13 24

QUINELLA

2,13 117.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 56.5

2,13 45

5,13 105.5

FORECAST

13,2 337

TIERCE

13,2,5 2,130

TRIO

2,5,13 246

FIRST 4

2,5,13,14 3,261

QUARTET

13,2,5,14 56,091

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 28.5

4TH DOUBLE

9/2 44

9/13 540