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Sha Tin · 2023-04-02 · 15:42

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 2.05.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT 2.05.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte 13 41.0 1/2
2 0 KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 1 5.5 1/2
3 0 HAPPY WON C Y Ho · F C Lor 9 13.0 3
4 0 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 19.0 3-3/4
5 0 FLYING MOJITO Led early CP-/XB K C Leung · D J Hall 4 5.8 4
7 0 SUNNY BABY S De Sousa · D A Hayes 5 12.0 5-3/4
8 0 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 12 8.7 6
9 0 REGENCY MASTER B/TT V Borges · C S Shum 11 31.0 7-1/4
10 0 PERFECT TO GREAT SR/TT L Currie · C Fownes 7 20.0 8-3/4
11 0 INCANTO PREPARED E/TT Z Purton · W Y So 3 10.0 9
12 0 WINNING STEPS H/PC A Badel · P C Ng 8 15.0 10
13 0 ROBOT WARRIOR V L Ferraris · P F Yiu 2 6.2 11-1/4
— 0 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard — 9.0 4-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-02 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. WONDER YEARS, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with KOWLOON GREAT second and HAPPY WON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.5 favourite KOWLOON GREAT finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER YEARS—2. KOWLOON GREAT+0.5L3. HAPPY WON+3L4. VINCY+3.75L5. FLYING MOJITO+4L7. SUNNY BABY+5.75L8. GO GO SIXTEEN+6L9. REGENCY MASTER+7.25L10. PERFECT TO GREAT+8.75L11. INCANTO PREPARED+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick KOWLOON GREAT (18.1%) finished 2nd — the winner WONDER YEARS was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 KOWLOON GREAT 18.1% 5.53 2
2 0 FLYING MOJITO 14.5% 6.88 5
3 0 INCANTO PREPARED 11.6% 8.63 11
4 0 SUNNY BABY 9.4% 10.68 7
5 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 7.6% 13.09 8
6 0 WINNING STEPS 6.9% 14.46 12
7 0 SUPER HONG KONG 6.6% 15.18 —
8 0 PERFECT TO GREAT 5.0% 20.02 10
9 0 HAPPY WON 4.6% 21.74 3
10 0 ROBOT WARRIOR 4.5% 22.42 13
11 0 REGENCY MASTER 4.2% 23.96 9
12 0 VINCY 4.0% 25.20 4
13 0 WONDER YEARS 3.1% 32.47 1
KOWLOON GREATFLYING MOJITOINCANTO PREPAREDSUNNY BABYGO GO SIXTEENWINNING STEPSSUPER HONG KONGPERFECT TO GREATHAPPY WONROBOT WARRIORREGENCY MASTERVINCYWONDER YEARS — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 415.5

PLACE

3 22.5

10 109

13 42.5

QUINELLA

3,10 1,206

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 381

3,13 183

10,13 658.5

FORECAST

10,3 2,365

TIERCE

10,3,13 32,065

TRIO

3,10,13 6,148

FIRST 4

3,9,10,13 16,295

QUARTET

10,3,13,9 462,972

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 18

A2 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,13/3,10,13 343,406

5TH DOUBLE

13/3 100.5

13/10 3,823

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,9,14/2,5,13/Any Combination 2,085