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Sha Tin · 2023-04-02 · 15:42

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-02 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. WONDER YEARS, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with KOWLOON GREAT second and HAPPY WON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.5 favourite KOWLOON GREAT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.05.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT 2.05.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte 13 41.0 1/2
2 3 KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 1 5.5 1/2
3 13 HAPPY WON C Y Ho · F C Lor 9 13.0 3
4 9 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 19.0 3-3/4
5 2 FLYING MOJITO Led early CP-/XB K C Leung · D J Hall 4 5.8 4
6 6 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard 6 9.0 4-1/2
7 12 SUNNY BABY S De Sousa · D A Hayes 5 12.0 5-3/4
8 8 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 12 8.7 6
9 11 REGENCY MASTER B/TT V Borges · C S Shum 11 31.0 7-1/4
10 7 PERFECT TO GREAT SR/TT L Currie · C Fownes 7 20.0 8-3/4
11 1 INCANTO PREPARED E/TT Z Purton · W Y So 3 10.0 9
12 4 WINNING STEPS H/PC A Badel · P C Ng 8 15.0 10
13 5 ROBOT WARRIOR V L Ferraris · P F Yiu 2 6.2 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER YEARS2. KOWLOON GREAT+0.5L3. HAPPY WON+3L4. VINCY+3.75L5. FLYING MOJITO+4L6. SUPER HONG KONG+4.5L7. SUNNY BABY+5.75L8. GO GO SIXTEEN+6L9. REGENCY MASTER+7.25L10. PERFECT TO GREAT+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick KOWLOON GREAT (18.1%) finished 2nd — the winner WONDER YEARS was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 KOWLOON GREAT 18.1% 5.53 2
2 2 FLYING MOJITO 14.5% 6.88 5
3 1 INCANTO PREPARED 11.6% 8.63 11
4 12 SUNNY BABY 9.4% 10.68 7
5 8 GO GO SIXTEEN 7.6% 13.09 8
6 4 WINNING STEPS 6.9% 14.46 12
7 6 SUPER HONG KONG 6.6% 15.18 6
8 7 PERFECT TO GREAT 5.0% 20.02 10
9 13 HAPPY WON 4.6% 21.74 3
10 5 ROBOT WARRIOR 4.5% 22.42 13
11 11 REGENCY MASTER 4.2% 23.96 9
12 9 VINCY 4.0% 25.20 4
13 10 WONDER YEARS 3.1% 32.47 1
KOWLOON GREATFLYING MOJITOINCANTO PREPAREDSUNNY BABYGO GO SIXTEENWINNING STEPSSUPER HONG KONGPERFECT TO GREATHAPPY WONROBOT WARRIORREGENCY MASTERVINCYWONDER YEARS — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 415.5

PLACE

3 22.5

10 109

13 42.5

QUINELLA

3,10 1,206

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 381

3,13 183

10,13 658.5

FORECAST

10,3 2,365

TIERCE

10,3,13 32,065

TRIO

3,10,13 6,148

FIRST 4

3,9,10,13 16,295

QUARTET

10,3,13,9 462,972

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 18

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,13/3,10,13 343,406

5TH DOUBLE

13/3 100.5

13/10 3,823

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,9,14/2,5,13/Any Combination 2,085