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Sha Tin · 2023-04-02 · 17:19

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.10.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BRAVE DREAMS TT 1.10.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz 10 8.4 N
2 0 BUNDLE OF CHARM Z Purton · J Size 2 3.9 N
3 0 GOOD BUDDY L Ferraris · D J Hall 3 6.8 3/4
4 0 HAPPY MISSION H/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 11 31.0 3/4
5 0 SPEEDY MOUSE V Borges · F C Lor 9 44.0 1-1/4
6 0 WONDER KIT C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 2.3 1-1/4
7 0 SEIZING THE MOMENT B K Teetan · J Size 12 59.0 2-1/4
8 0 SHOW RESPECT SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 4 43.0 2-1/2
9 0 LIKE THAT V S De Sousa · F C Lor 7 27.0 3-3/4
10 0 HERO STAR TT K H Chan · K L Man 1 46.0 7
11 0 SOLID SHALAA L Currie · D A Hayes 5 45.0 9
12 0 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 10.0 12-1/4
— 0 DECISIVE TWELVE A Hamelin · W Y So — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-02 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BRAVE DREAMS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with BUNDLE OF CHARM second and GOOD BUDDY third. The 2.3 favourite WONDER KIT finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BRAVE DREAMS—2. BUNDLE OF CHARM+0.05L3. GOOD BUDDY+0.75L4. HAPPY MISSION+0.75L5. SPEEDY MOUSE+1.25L6. WONDER KIT+1.25L7. SEIZING THE MOMENT+2.25L8. SHOW RESPECT+2.5L9. LIKE THAT+3.75L10. HERO STAR+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BUNDLE OF CHARM (16.6%) finished 2nd — the winner BRAVE DREAMS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BUNDLE OF CHARM 16.6% 6.02 2
2 0 WONDER KIT 15.8% 6.32 6
3 0 SUPER FORTUNE 12.0% 8.36 12
4 0 BRAVE DREAMS 9.7% 10.34 1
5 0 GOOD BUDDY 9.4% 10.66 3
6 0 LIKE THAT 7.2% 13.92 9
7 0 SEIZING THE MOMENT 6.2% 16.24 7
8 0 HAPPY MISSION 5.9% 16.90 4
9 0 SPEEDY MOUSE 5.9% 16.94 5
10 0 HERO STAR 5.2% 19.19 10
11 0 SHOW RESPECT 3.4% 29.19 8
12 0 SOLID SHALAA 2.8% 36.35 11
BUNDLE OF CHARMWONDER KITSUPER FORTUNEBRAVE DREAMS — wonGOOD BUDDYLIKE THATSEIZING THE MOMENTHAPPY MISSIONSPEEDY MOUSEHERO STARSHOW RESPECTSOLID SHALAA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 84

PLACE

2 23

6 16

9 21

QUINELLA

6,9 173.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 46.5

2,9 83.5

6,9 55

FORECAST

9,6 477

TIERCE

9,6,2 2,298

TRIO

2,6,9 261

FIRST 4

2,6,8,9 1,802

QUARTET

9,6,2,8 38,502

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A3 —

A2 —

8TH DOUBLE

11/6 67

11/9 404.5