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Happy Valley · 2023-04-06 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course A 10 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-06 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. LOYAL AMBITION, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with AI ONE second and LUCKY MISSILE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite CABLE SPEED finished 5th.

Result

Official · 2.17.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly TT 2.17.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 6.8 1
2 1 AI ONE Closed strongly H/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 9.6 1
3 3 LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly CP M F Poon · D J Hall 3 8.1 3
4 8 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly S De Sousa · Y S Tsui 9 5.0 4-3/4
5 6 CABLE SPEED Led early TT K Teetan · C W Chang 2 2.7 5
6 10 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB M Chadwick · A T Millard 5 21.0 6-1/2
7 7 JOLLY FOREVER B/XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 6 29.0 7-1/4
8 2 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly V K H Chan · C Fownes 10 34.0 7-1/2
9 9 WAH MAY LUCK B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 30.0 13-3/4
10 4 JUBILATION V K C Leung · L Ho 7 7.9 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOYAL AMBITION2. AI ONE+1L3. LUCKY MISSILE+3L4. FORTUNE TRIPLE+4.75L5. CABLE SPEED+5L6. FORTUNE PATROL+6.5L7. JOLLY FOREVER+7.25L8. DAILY BEAUTY+7.5L9. WAH MAY LUCK+13.75L10. JUBILATION+17.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CABLE SPEED (33.0%) finished 5th — the winner LOYAL AMBITION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 CABLE SPEED 33.0% 3.03 5
2 5 LOYAL AMBITION 13.4% 7.45 1
3 8 FORTUNE TRIPLE 9.6% 10.41 4
4 1 AI ONE 9.4% 10.61 2
5 9 WAH MAY LUCK 8.4% 11.91 9
6 4 JUBILATION 8.1% 12.31 10
7 10 FORTUNE PATROL 5.9% 17.08 6
8 3 LUCKY MISSILE 5.0% 19.92 3
9 2 DAILY BEAUTY 3.6% 27.63 8
10 7 JOLLY FOREVER 3.5% 28.67 7
CABLE SPEEDLOYAL AMBITION — wonFORTUNE TRIPLEAI ONEWAH MAY LUCKJUBILATIONFORTUNE PATROLLUCKY MISSILEDAILY BEAUTYJOLLY FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 68.5

PLACE

1 34.5

3 28.5

5 17.5

QUINELLA

1,5 400.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 162

1,5 118.5

3,5 92.5

FORECAST

5,1 856

TIERCE

5,1,3 5,670

TRIO

1,3,5 940

FIRST 4

1,3,5,8 945

QUARTET

5,1,3,8 26,637

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19.5

A2