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Happy Valley · 2023-04-06 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 9 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-06 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ZONE D, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by N, with MEANINGFUL STAR second and STAR CONTACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT 1.40.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 1 2.4 N
2 2 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui 3 11.0 N
3 7 STAR CONTACT Led early CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 6.9 1/2
4 1 C P BRAVE CP/TT R Maia · A T Millard 4 31.0 1
5 9 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C Fownes 6 12.0 3
6 3 ALL BEAUTY C Y Ho · F C Lor 2 8.3 4
7 8 MAJESTIC VICTORY TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 9 10.0 4-1/4
8 4 AMAZING ONE PLUS Closed strongly XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 5 26.0 4-1/2
9 10 PACKING SUCCEEDER M F Poon · L Ho 7 4.6 6-1/4
6 DELIGHTFUL LAOS S De Sousa · J Richards

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ZONE D2. MEANINGFUL STAR+0.05L3. STAR CONTACT+0.5L4. C P BRAVE+1L5. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+3L6. ALL BEAUTY+4L7. MAJESTIC VICTORY+4.25L8. AMAZING ONE PLUS+4.5L9. PACKING SUCCEEDER+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ZONE D (24.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 ZONE D 24.5% 4.07 1
2 2 MEANINGFUL STAR 16.1% 6.23 2
3 7 STAR CONTACT 12.7% 7.85 3
4 10 PACKING SUCCEEDER 11.9% 8.39 9
5 3 ALL BEAUTY 10.9% 9.16 6
6 8 MAJESTIC VICTORY 9.7% 10.31 7
7 4 AMAZING ONE PLUS 8.0% 12.49 8
8 1 C P BRAVE 3.5% 28.38 4
9 9 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 2.6% 38.57 5
ZONE D — wonMEANINGFUL STARSTAR CONTACTPACKING SUCCEEDERALL BEAUTYMAJESTIC VICTORYAMAZING ONE PLUSC P BRAVEINVINCIBLE MISSILE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 24.5

PLACE

2 30.5

5 11

7 20

QUINELLA

2,5 131

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 54.5

2,7 82.5

5,7 36

FORECAST

5,2 256

TIERCE

5,2,7 955

TRIO

2,5,7 201

FIRST 4

1,2,5,7 1,142

QUARTET

5,2,7,1 16,448

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,12/2,7>5,6 49,058

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16

A2

4TH DOUBLE

5/2 181.5

5/5,6 254.5