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Happy Valley · 2023-04-06 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. THE HULK, ridden by L Currie and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with RED ELYSEES second and BIG TWO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite ONE HEART ONE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.40.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 THE HULK Closed strongly 1.40.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · C Fownes 1 9.9 1-1/2
2 12 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 11 16.0 1-1/2
3 3 BIG TWO Closed strongly H/SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 4.6 2-3/4
4 11 THETA HEDGE H/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 9 6.7 3-1/4
5 8 ONE HEART ONE Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 7 2.9 4
6 7 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 10 28.0 7-1/4
7 4 HAPPY HUNK Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 6 56.0 8-1/2
8 10 STARSHIP EIGHTY B/H/TT A Badel · P C Ng 5 8.4 14-1/4
9 1 YOUNG VICTORY TT M Chadwick · W Y So 4 7.7 14-1/2
10 9 PERFECT ROCK H Bentley · Y S Tsui 3 28.0 21
11 6 JAZZ WITH DRAGON Led early K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 78.0 21-1/4
2 KUNG FU TEA L Ferraris · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE HULK2. RED ELYSEES+1.5L3. BIG TWO+2.75L4. THETA HEDGE+3.25L5. ONE HEART ONE+4L6. RIGHT HONOURABLE+7.25L7. HAPPY HUNK+8.5L8. STARSHIP EIGHTY+14.25L9. YOUNG VICTORY+14.5L10. PERFECT ROCK+21L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ONE HEART ONE (17.7%) finished 5th — the winner THE HULK was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 ONE HEART ONE 17.7% 5.64 5
2 5 THE HULK 16.8% 5.96 1
3 3 BIG TWO 14.5% 6.89 3
4 1 YOUNG VICTORY 13.7% 7.28 9
5 11 THETA HEDGE 13.0% 7.71 4
6 10 STARSHIP EIGHTY 9.4% 10.67 8
7 12 RED ELYSEES 5.4% 18.66 2
8 7 RIGHT HONOURABLE 4.6% 21.74 6
9 9 PERFECT ROCK 2.0% 49.24 10
10 4 HAPPY HUNK 1.7% 58.49 7
11 6 JAZZ WITH DRAGON 1.2% 81.27 11
ONE HEART ONETHE HULK — wonBIG TWOYOUNG VICTORYTHETA HEDGESTARSHIP EIGHTYRED ELYSEESRIGHT HONOURABLEPERFECT ROCKHAPPY HUNKJAZZ WITH DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 99.5

PLACE

3 18

5 24.5

12 47

QUINELLA

5,12 773.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 68.5

3,12 182.5

5,12 174

FORECAST

5,12 1,339

TIERCE

5,12,3 8,319

TRIO

3,5,12 1,242

FIRST 4

3,5,11,12 1,390

QUARTET

5,12,3,11 44,690

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 26.5

3RD DOUBLE

3/5 613.5

3/12 322