Happy Valley · 2023-04-06 · 21:16
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KOKUSHI MUSOU, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with DENFIELD second and HERCULES third. The 3.3 favourite HAPPY UNITED finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT 1.10.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 4 | 6.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | DENFIELD B-/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 12 | 19.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | HERCULES B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 2 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | VAMOS H L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 10 | 19.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 11 | OUR CLASS ACT H K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 5 | 30.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | DURHAM STAR B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 7.4 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | MR VALIANT H/XB2 S De Sousa · L Ho | S De Sousa | L Ho | 11 | 17.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SO AWESOME B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 8 | 61.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | HAPPY UNITED P1/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 3 | 3.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 6 | 49.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | FLAMING PASSION H1/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 22.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | LORIZ B C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HAPPY UNITED | 23.0% | 4.34 | 9 |
| 2 | 10 | LORIZ | 16.7% | 5.98 | 12 |
| 3 | 1 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 13.4% | 7.48 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | DURHAM STAR | 8.1% | 12.36 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | MR VALIANT | 7.2% | 13.98 | 7 |
| 6 | 11 | OUR CLASS ACT | 6.4% | 15.62 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | FLAMING PASSION | 6.2% | 16.09 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | VAMOS | 6.0% | 16.55 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | DENFIELD | 5.0% | 20.05 | 2 |
| 10 | 9 | HERCULES | 2.8% | 35.47 | 3 |
| 11 | 7 | SO AWESOME | 2.6% | 38.80 | 8 |
| 12 | 3 | SUPER AXIOM | 2.6% | 38.86 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 61.5
PLACE
1 18.5
8 49.5
9 25.5
QUINELLA
1,8 653.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 220.5
1,9 80.5
8,9 340
FORECAST
1,8 1,021
TIERCE
1,8,9 10,683
TRIO
1,8,9 2,896
FIRST 4
1,8,9,12 4,040
QUARTET
1,8,9,12 83,003
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 26
A1 —
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
5,6/1 124.5
5,6/8 196.5