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Happy Valley · 2023-04-06 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-06 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. WINNING ICEY, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with HOSS second and HARMONY N BLESSED third. The 1.9 favourite HOSS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 WINNING ICEY TT 1.10.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · C Fownes 9 6.7 SH
2 10 HOSS XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 3 1.9 SH
3 8 HARMONY N BLESSED TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 7 23.0 1-3/4
4 1 BEAUTY TYCOON H/PC S De Sousa · J Size 2 6.5 2-3/4
5 2 JUMBO FORTUNE XB1 C Y Ho · P C Ng 11 32.0 2-3/4
6 9 ELON E/P L Currie · J Size 1 9.6 3
7 12 SCOTCH TYCOON M F Poon · K W Lui 12 51.0 4-1/2
8 3 WINGS OF WAR CP M Chadwick · A T Millard 10 64.0 4-3/4
9 4 IVY LEAGUE SR-/XB1/B2/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 4 78.0 7-1/2
10 7 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 55.0 8-3/4
11 11 SUPER VINCE XB/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 5 12.0 13
12 6 BEAUTY GLORY H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 8 12.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING ICEY2. HOSS+0.1L3. HARMONY N BLESSED+1.75L4. BEAUTY TYCOON+2.75L5. JUMBO FORTUNE+2.75L6. ELON+3L7. SCOTCH TYCOON+4.5L8. WINGS OF WAR+4.75L9. IVY LEAGUE+7.5L10. VALIANT ELEGANCE+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HOSS (39.4%) finished 2nd — the winner WINNING ICEY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 HOSS 39.4% 2.54 2
2 1 BEAUTY TYCOON 10.5% 9.49 4
3 5 WINNING ICEY 9.3% 10.70 1
4 6 BEAUTY GLORY 9.0% 11.11 12
5 11 SUPER VINCE 8.9% 11.27 11
6 9 ELON 5.2% 19.35 6
7 8 HARMONY N BLESSED 4.5% 22.17 3
8 2 JUMBO FORTUNE 4.1% 24.65 5
9 12 SCOTCH TYCOON 3.4% 29.60 7
10 7 VALIANT ELEGANCE 2.7% 37.32 10
11 3 WINGS OF WAR 2.1% 47.10 8
12 4 IVY LEAGUE 0.9% 109.67 9
HOSSBEAUTY TYCOONWINNING ICEY — wonBEAUTY GLORYSUPER VINCEELONHARMONY N BLESSEDJUMBO FORTUNESCOTCH TYCOONVALIANT ELEGANCEWINGS OF WARIVY LEAGUE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 67.5

PLACE

5 20.5

8 54.5

10 10.5

QUINELLA

5,10 67

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 176

5,10 29

8,10 76.5

FORECAST

5,10 211

TIERCE

5,10,8 2,312

TRIO

5,8,10 332

FIRST 4

1,5,8,10 424

QUARTET

5,10,8,1 9,343

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 15

A2

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,8/5,8,10 93,738

8TH DOUBLE

2/5 123

2/10 10.5

SIX UP

5/5,6/1/5/2/5 60,504

5,12/2,5,6/1,8/2,5/2,4/5,10 3,214

1 [Z Purton]

1 [C Fownes]

TREBLE

5/2/5 713

5/2/10 38