Happy Valley · 2023-05-24 · 20:21
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FLAMING PASSION, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by HD, with DENFIELD second and STORMTROUPER third. The 3.0 favourite STORMTROUPER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | FLAMING PASSION H/TT 1.10.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 3 | 6.8 | HD |
| 2 | 8 | DENFIELD TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 12 | 8.2 | HD |
| 3 | 3 | STORMTROUPER E/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 2 | 3.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | MULTIMORE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 7 | 49.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | AWESOME TREASURE H/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 4 | 4.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | ISLAND SURPRISE B-/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 10 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | MODEST GENTLEMAN P/TT K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 8 | 8.4 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | RED DESERT B/E1 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 11 | 30.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | LITTLE FAIRY A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 5 | 23.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | LUCKY QUALITY B2 K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 1 | 12.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | UNITED WARRIORS TT1 A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 6 | 50.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | RED LEADER B1 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 9 | 89.0 | 18 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | STORMTROUPER | 26.6% | 3.76 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | AWESOME TREASURE | 12.5% | 7.98 | 5 |
| 3 | 8 | DENFIELD | 10.1% | 9.90 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | FLAMING PASSION | 9.6% | 10.47 | 1 |
| 5 | 12 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 8.9% | 11.18 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | LITTLE FAIRY | 8.2% | 12.23 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 7.8% | 12.77 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | RED DESERT | 5.8% | 17.16 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | UNITED WARRIORS | 3.3% | 30.36 | 11 |
| 10 | 4 | LUCKY QUALITY | 3.2% | 31.72 | 10 |
| 11 | 11 | MULTIMORE | 3.1% | 32.51 | 4 |
| 12 | 6 | RED LEADER | 0.9% | 114.32 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 68.5
PLACE
3 14.5
8 27.5
10 22.5
QUINELLA
8,10 264.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 51
3,10 44
8,10 87.5
FORECAST
10,8 574
TIERCE
10,8,3 2,034
TRIO
3,8,10 272
FIRST 4
3,8,10,11 2,227
QUARTET
10,8,3,11 41,588
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 26
3RD DOUBLE
2/8 944.5
2/10 5,541.5