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Happy Valley · 2023-05-24 · 23:03

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly 1.40.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 7.9 3/4
2 0 VIVA HUNTER TT A Badel · K L Man 12 11.0 3/4
3 0 EIGHTEEN PALMS Closed strongly B L Hewitson · C S Shum 7 4.7 1
4 0 WINNING DRAGON Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 15.0 1-1/2
5 0 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT H T Mo · K W Lui 9 46.0 1-1/2
6 0 ALL BEAUTY Closed strongly H Bentley · F C Lor 4 11.0 2-1/4
7 0 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly XB Z Purton · P C Ng 10 6.2 2-1/2
8 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly TT L Currie · C Fownes 1 13.0 2-1/2
9 0 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 3 11.0 2-3/4
10 0 RED MAJESTY B/TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes 2 9.1 3-1/2
11 0 RATTAN KINGDOM Closed strongly B/XB/TT K Teetan · J Richards 11 6.6 4
12 0 GALLANT CROWN B M F Poon · A T Millard 6 31.0 5-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-24 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. PRIME MINISTER, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with VIVA HUNTER second and EIGHTEEN PALMS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite EIGHTEEN PALMS finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRIME MINISTER—2. VIVA HUNTER+0.75L3. EIGHTEEN PALMS+1L4. WINNING DRAGON+1.5L5. SKYEY SUPREME+1.5L6. ALL BEAUTY+2.25L7. JUMBO FORTUNE+2.5L8. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+2.5L9. ZONE D+2.75L10. RED MAJESTY+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JUMBO FORTUNE (18.7%) finished 7th — the winner PRIME MINISTER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 JUMBO FORTUNE 18.7% 5.36 7
2 0 RATTAN KINGDOM 18.5% 5.42 11
3 0 EIGHTEEN PALMS 14.1% 7.11 3
4 0 ZONE D 8.4% 11.97 9
5 0 PRIME MINISTER 8.1% 12.42 1
6 0 WINNING DRAGON 7.8% 12.83 4
7 0 VIVA HUNTER 5.4% 18.69 2
8 0 RED MAJESTY 4.9% 20.39 10
9 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 4.5% 22.18 8
10 0 ALL BEAUTY 4.2% 23.79 6
11 0 SKYEY SUPREME 3.7% 26.92 5
12 0 GALLANT CROWN 1.9% 52.07 12
JUMBO FORTUNERATTAN KINGDOMEIGHTEEN PALMSZONE DPRIME MINISTER — wonWINNING DRAGONVIVA HUNTERRED MAJESTYINVINCIBLE MISSILEALL BEAUTYSKYEY SUPREMEGALLANT CROWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 79

PLACE

3 25

7 47.5

10 17

QUINELLA

3,7 585.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 189.5

3,10 72.5

7,10 129.5

FORECAST

3,7 1,083

TIERCE

3,7,10 6,158

TRIO

3,7,10 936

FIRST 4

1,3,7,10 1,727

QUARTET

3,7,10,1 48,999

All pools (5 more)

2ND TREBLE

12/12/3 4,693

12/12/7 3,155

3 PICK 1

A2 27

A3 —

A1 —

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,12/3,7,10 617,849

8TH DOUBLE

12/3 523.5

12/7 321

SIX UP

8,10/6,7/2,6/2,12/7,12/3,7 141,681

10/6/6/12/12/3 830,938

11 [P F Yiu] —

3 [L Hewitson] —