Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2023-05-24 · 22:28

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-24 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MAGIC PHOENIX, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K H Ting, won by HD, with WONDER KIT second and SMART IDEA third. The 3.3 favourite MAGNIAC finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MAGIC PHOENIX TT 1.09.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K H Ting 5 8.1 HD
2 7 WONDER KIT M Chadwick · K W Lui 11 16.0 HD
3 4 SMART IDEA H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 1 11.0 N
4 6 COPARTNER AMBITION B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 12 10.0 1-1/2
5 10 A AMERIC TE SPECSO A Hamelin · J Size 2 7.2 2
6 9 LESLIE B K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 27.0 2-3/4
7 8 ACT OF FAITH B Avdulla · J Size 6 10.0 3-1/4
7 11 COMPASSION SUPER XB/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 7 31.0 3-1/4
9 2 CALIFORNIA CIBLE TT A Badel · A S Cruz 4 5.0 3-1/2
10 5 CLASSIC UNICORN P/TT L Ferraris · W Y So 3 39.0 8-1/2
11 3 MAGNIAC V/TT Z Purton · J Richards 8 3.3 9-3/4
12 1 SAKEWIN CP Y L Chung · F C Lor 10 44.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAGIC PHOENIX2. WONDER KIT+0.2L3. SMART IDEA+0.05L4. COPARTNER AMBITION+1.5L5. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+2L6. LESLIE+2.75L7. ACT OF FAITH+3.25L7. COMPASSION SUPER+3.25L9. CALIFORNIA CIBLE+3.5L10. CLASSIC UNICORN+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MAGNIAC (26.3%) finished 11th — the winner MAGIC PHOENIX was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 MAGNIAC 26.3% 3.81 11
2 10 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 11.4% 8.78 5
3 2 CALIFORNIA CIBLE 11.0% 9.08 9
4 7 WONDER KIT 9.9% 10.13 2
5 8 ACT OF FAITH 8.5% 11.79 7
6 6 COPARTNER AMBITION 7.6% 13.08 4
7 11 COMPASSION SUPER 5.8% 17.10 7
8 9 LESLIE 4.7% 21.41 6
9 1 SAKEWIN 4.6% 21.52 12
10 4 SMART IDEA 4.4% 22.68 3
11 12 MAGIC PHOENIX 4.3% 23.11 1
12 5 CLASSIC UNICORN 1.4% 70.52 10
MAGNIACA AMERIC TE SPECSOCALIFORNIA CIBLEWONDER KITACT OF FAITHCOPARTNER AMBITIONCOMPASSION SUPERLESLIESAKEWINSMART IDEAMAGIC PHOENIX — wonCLASSIC UNICORN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 81

PLACE

4 38.5

7 44

12 28.5

QUINELLA

7,12 852.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 320.5

4,12 159

7,12 222.5

FORECAST

12,7 1,088

TIERCE

12,7,4 12,707

TRIO

4,7,12 3,476

FIRST 4

4,6,7,12 6,317

QUARTET

12,7,4,6 131,265

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 28.5

A1

7TH DOUBLE

12/7 191

12/12 483