Happy Valley · 2023-05-24 · 21:56
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COLONEL, ridden by H T Mo and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with SIGHT HERO second and HAPPY TRIO third. The 3.4 favourite PRIME MORTAR finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | COLONEL V 1.09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 1 | 5.2 | HD |
| 2 | 2 | SIGHT HERO B/TT M Dee · D A Hayes | M Dee | D A Hayes | 10 | 16.0 | HD |
| 3 | 7 | HAPPY TRIO B H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 6 | 5.2 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | EXUBERANT B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 9 | 9.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | STOICISM TT Y L Chung · R Gibson | Y L Chung | R Gibson | 4 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | CAMINO H/P L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 3 | 34.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | EASY SNIP B L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 5 | 7.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | PRIME MORTAR CP/XB/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 2 | 3.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | WOOD ON FIRE H/TT K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 7 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | SO AWESOME B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 8 | 39.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | FIGHTING STAR B A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 12 | 36.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | SWEET DIAMOND B B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 11 | 47.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PRIME MORTAR | 21.1% | 4.74 | 8 |
| 2 | 3 | EXUBERANT | 14.7% | 6.80 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | WOOD ON FIRE | 12.0% | 8.32 | 9 |
| 4 | 7 | HAPPY TRIO | 10.7% | 9.33 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | EASY SNIP | 8.6% | 11.69 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | COLONEL | 8.5% | 11.74 | 1 |
| 7 | 2 | SIGHT HERO | 8.5% | 11.77 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | STOICISM | 6.2% | 16.13 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | FIGHTING STAR | 3.2% | 31.16 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | SO AWESOME | 2.7% | 36.59 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | SWEET DIAMOND | 2.4% | 41.77 | 12 |
| 12 | 8 | CAMINO | 1.4% | 73.17 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 52.5
PLACE
2 36.5
7 19
12 22.5
QUINELLA
2,12 506
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 97.5
2,12 149.5
7,12 55.5
FORECAST
12,2 940
TIERCE
12,2,7 5,405
TRIO
2,7,12 671
FIRST 4
2,3,7,12 1,130
QUARTET
12,2,7,3 29,562
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 23
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,6,7/2,7,12 18,220
6TH DOUBLE
6/2 50.5
6/12 154.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
6,7,11/2,6,7/Any Combination 22,769