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Happy Valley · 2023-05-24 · 21:56

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COLONEL, ridden by H T Mo and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with SIGHT HERO second and HAPPY TRIO third. The 3.4 favourite PRIME MORTAR finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.09.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 COLONEL V 1.09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · P F Yiu 1 5.2 HD
2 2 SIGHT HERO B/TT M Dee · D A Hayes 10 16.0 HD
3 7 HAPPY TRIO B H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 5.2 1/2
4 3 EXUBERANT B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 9 9.0 1-1/4
5 6 STOICISM TT Y L Chung · R Gibson 4 16.0 2-1/4
6 8 CAMINO H/P L Currie · C Fownes 3 34.0 2-3/4
7 5 EASY SNIP B L Hewitson · T P Yung 5 7.7 2-3/4
8 1 PRIME MORTAR CP/XB/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 2 3.4 3-1/4
9 4 WOOD ON FIRE H/TT K Teetan · L Ho 7 14.0 4-1/2
10 9 SO AWESOME B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 8 39.0 5-1/2
11 11 FIGHTING STAR B A Hamelin · C H Yip 12 36.0 7-1/2
12 10 SWEET DIAMOND B B Avdulla · P F Yiu 11 47.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COLONEL2. SIGHT HERO+0.2L3. HAPPY TRIO+0.5L4. EXUBERANT+1.25L5. STOICISM+2.25L6. CAMINO+2.75L7. EASY SNIP+2.75L8. PRIME MORTAR+3.25L9. WOOD ON FIRE+4.5L10. SO AWESOME+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PRIME MORTAR (21.1%) finished 8th — the winner COLONEL was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PRIME MORTAR 21.1% 4.74 8
2 3 EXUBERANT 14.7% 6.80 4
3 4 WOOD ON FIRE 12.0% 8.32 9
4 7 HAPPY TRIO 10.7% 9.33 3
5 5 EASY SNIP 8.6% 11.69 7
6 12 COLONEL 8.5% 11.74 1
7 2 SIGHT HERO 8.5% 11.77 2
8 6 STOICISM 6.2% 16.13 5
9 11 FIGHTING STAR 3.2% 31.16 11
10 9 SO AWESOME 2.7% 36.59 10
11 10 SWEET DIAMOND 2.4% 41.77 12
12 8 CAMINO 1.4% 73.17 6
PRIME MORTAREXUBERANTWOOD ON FIREHAPPY TRIOEASY SNIPCOLONEL — wonSIGHT HEROSTOICISMFIGHTING STARSO AWESOMESWEET DIAMONDCAMINO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 52.5

PLACE

2 36.5

7 19

12 22.5

QUINELLA

2,12 506

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 97.5

2,12 149.5

7,12 55.5

FORECAST

12,2 940

TIERCE

12,2,7 5,405

TRIO

2,7,12 671

FIRST 4

2,3,7,12 1,130

QUARTET

12,2,7,3 29,562

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 23

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,7/2,7,12 18,220

6TH DOUBLE

6/2 50.5

6/12 154.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

6,7,11/2,6,7/Any Combination 22,769