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Happy Valley · 2023-06-07 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-07 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT SPLENDOR, ridden by M Dee and trained by T P Yung, won by 1, with HAPPY GATHERING second and THETA HEDGE third. The 3.8 favourite FINGERS CROSSED finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR XB- 1.10.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Dee · T P Yung 1 15.0 1
2 1 HAPPY GATHERING H Bowman · K L Man 3 5.2 1
3 3 THETA HEDGE B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 4.1 1-3/4
4 2 JACK WIN B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 6 10.0 2
5 4 FINGERS CROSSED B/H/TT K Teetan · J Size 2 3.8 3-3/4
6 9 SUPER HORNET B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 4 6.2 4-1/4
7 6 JUST GREAT TWO M F Poon · D J Hall 7 109.0 5
8 12 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 22.0 6
9 7 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 14.0 6-1/4
10 10 EUROMISSILE XB/B2 M L Yeung · C W Chang 12 44.0 6-3/4
11 5 ISLAND SHINE B K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 35.0 17-3/4
12 8 HAPPILY FRIENDS V L Ferraris · W Y So 10 40.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CIRCUIT SPLENDOR2. HAPPY GATHERING+1L3. THETA HEDGE+1.75L4. JACK WIN+2L5. FINGERS CROSSED+3.75L6. SUPER HORNET+4.25L7. JUST GREAT TWO+5L8. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+6L9. DOUBLE SHOW+6.25L10. EUROMISSILE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick THETA HEDGE (24.6%) finished 3rd — the winner CIRCUIT SPLENDOR was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 THETA HEDGE 24.6% 4.06 3
2 9 SUPER HORNET 14.3% 6.97 6
3 1 HAPPY GATHERING 13.7% 7.30 2
4 4 FINGERS CROSSED 12.9% 7.74 5
5 2 JACK WIN 8.3% 11.99 4
6 7 DOUBLE SHOW 6.3% 15.86 9
7 11 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 6.3% 15.87 1
8 12 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 4.4% 22.92 8
9 5 ISLAND SHINE 3.2% 31.27 11
10 10 EUROMISSILE 2.3% 43.13 10
11 8 HAPPILY FRIENDS 2.1% 47.27 12
12 6 JUST GREAT TWO 1.5% 66.62 7
THETA HEDGESUPER HORNETHAPPY GATHERINGFINGERS CROSSEDJACK WINDOUBLE SHOWCIRCUIT SPLENDOR — wonHEAVENLY THOUGHTISLAND SHINEEUROMISSILEHAPPILY FRIENDSJUST GREAT TWO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 155.5

PLACE

1 17

3 15.5

11 51

QUINELLA

1,11 487

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 41

1,11 155.5

3,11 118

FORECAST

11,1 1,110

TIERCE

11,1,3 5,084

TRIO

1,3,11 718

FIRST 4

1,2,3,11 860

QUARTET

11,1,3,2 25,987

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/1 33

3/11 1,235

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 38

A1