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Happy Valley · 2023-06-07 · 20:47

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 LEAN HERO Closed strongly CP/TT 1.41.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D A Hayes 2 4.0 SH
2 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H M L Yeung · L Ho 8 17.0 SH
3 0 MASTER TORNADO Led early B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 12 16.0 3/4
4 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 7 22.0 3/4
5 0 READY PLAYER ONE B/XB/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 6 10.0 1
6 0 NICE BIRDIE B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 11.0 1-1/4
7 0 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C W Chang 5 11.0 2-1/4
8 0 BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly SR/TT M Dee · F C Lor 4 4.9 2-3/4
10 0 SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 12.0 3-1/2
11 0 BIG TWO SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 5.6 4
— 0 HAPPY HUNK M F Poon · K L Man — — —
— 0 SHARPEN BRIGHT B Avdulla · D J Hall — 13.0 2-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-07 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LEAN HERO, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with UNITED ENDEAVORS second and MASTER TORNADO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LEAN HERO—2. UNITED ENDEAVORS+0.1L3. MASTER TORNADO+0.75L4. RIGHT HONOURABLE+0.75L5. READY PLAYER ONE+1L6. NICE BIRDIE+1.25L7. AMAZING BOY+2.25L8. BEAUTY MISSION+2.75L10. SINGAPORE SPIRIT+3.5L11. BIG TWO+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LEAN HERO (18.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LEAN HERO 18.1% 5.52 1
2 0 NICE BIRDIE 18.0% 5.57 6
3 0 READY PLAYER ONE 16.0% 6.26 5
4 0 BIG TWO 10.2% 9.80 11
5 0 BEAUTY MISSION 8.2% 12.25 8
6 0 AMAZING BOY 7.4% 13.43 7
7 0 MASTER TORNADO 6.7% 15.03 3
8 0 SHARPEN BRIGHT 6.0% 16.72 —
9 0 SINGAPORE SPIRIT 3.6% 27.46 10
10 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 3.5% 28.47 4
11 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS 2.4% 42.37 2
LEAN HERO — wonNICE BIRDIEREADY PLAYER ONEBIG TWOBEAUTY MISSIONAMAZING BOYMASTER TORNADOSHARPEN BRIGHTSINGAPORE SPIRITRIGHT HONOURABLEUNITED ENDEAVORS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 40

PLACE

1 53.5

3 16.5

12 43

QUINELLA

3,12 399.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 148.5

1,12 446.5

3,12 138

FORECAST

3,12 682

TIERCE

3,12,1 10,976

TRIO

1,3,12 2,803

FIRST 4

1,3,10,12 5,538

QUARTET

3,12,1,10 111,801

All pools (4 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/1/3,8 3,139

1/1/12 1,872

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,10/1,12>3,8 51,459

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 30

4TH DOUBLE

1/3,8 195

1/12 110.5