Happy Valley · 2023-06-07 · 20:47
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-07 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LEAN HERO, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with UNITED ENDEAVORS second and MASTER TORNADO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LEAN HERO Closed strongly CP/TT 1.41.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.0 | SH |
| 2 | 12 | UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 8 | 17.0 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | MASTER TORNADO Led early B/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 12 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 7 | 22.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | READY PLAYER ONE B/XB/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 6 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | NICE BIRDIE B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C W Chang | H Bentley | C W Chang | 5 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly SR/TT M Dee · F C Lor | M Dee | F C Lor | 4 | 4.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | SHARPEN BRIGHT B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 3 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | BIG TWO SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 1 | 5.6 | 4 |
| — | 8 | HAPPY HUNK M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LEAN HERO | 18.1% | 5.52 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | NICE BIRDIE | 18.0% | 5.57 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | READY PLAYER ONE | 16.0% | 6.26 | 5 |
| 4 | 7 | BIG TWO | 10.2% | 9.80 | 11 |
| 5 | 6 | BEAUTY MISSION | 8.2% | 12.25 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | AMAZING BOY | 7.4% | 13.43 | 7 |
| 7 | 1 | MASTER TORNADO | 6.7% | 15.03 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 | SHARPEN BRIGHT | 6.0% | 16.72 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | SINGAPORE SPIRIT | 3.6% | 27.46 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 3.5% | 28.47 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | UNITED ENDEAVORS | 2.4% | 42.37 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 40
PLACE
1 53.5
3 16.5
12 43
QUINELLA
3,12 399.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 148.5
1,12 446.5
3,12 138
FORECAST
3,12 682
TIERCE
3,12,1 10,976
TRIO
1,3,12 2,803
FIRST 4
1,3,10,12 5,538
QUARTET
3,12,1,10 111,801
All pools (4 more)
1ST TREBLE
1/1/3,8 3,139
1/1/12 1,872
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,10/1,12>3,8 51,459
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 30
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/3,8 195
1/12 110.5