Happy Valley · 2023-06-07 · 20:18

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THE RUNNER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won by 1/2, with SPEEDY CHARIOT second and SNOWALOT third. The 3.7 favourite SNOWALOT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.48

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	THE RUNNER V 1.10.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting	Z Purton	K H Ting	1	135 lb	4.0	1/2
2	10	SPEEDY CHARIOT SR1 M Dee · D J Whyte	M Dee	D J Whyte	8	123 lb	11.0	1/2
3	2	SNOWALOT B L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	5	132 lb	3.7	1-3/4
4	5	MELBOURNE HALL B/XB L Ferraris · D J Hall	L Ferraris	D J Hall	7	127 lb	14.0	2-1/4
5	9	CHEER FOR SOUTH SR1 K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	3	123 lb	4.7	2-1/2
6	12	PRECISION GOAL P/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung	M L Yeung	T P Yung	4	116 lb	28.0	3-3/4
7	8	SUPER DOBBIN B M Chadwick · A T Millard	M Chadwick	A T Millard	6	124 lb	20.0	4
8	6	ALWAYS FLUKE C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	10	126 lb	11.0	5-3/4
9	3	RED DESERT E-/B B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	9	130 lb	20.0	6
10	11	MY INTELLIGENT V/TT H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	2	119 lb	11.0	7-1/2
11	4	SEIZE THE DREAM K C Leung · Y S Tsui	K C Leung	Y S Tsui	12	124 lb	98.0	10-3/4
12	7	CROWN OF STAR P-/TT L Currie · W Y So	L Currie	W Y So	11	124 lb	145.0	11
—	0	HAPPY SOUL H Bowman · C S Shum	H Bowman	C S Shum	—	128 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick THE RUNNER (21.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	THE RUNNER	21.6%	4.62	1	4.0
2	9	CHEER FOR SOUTH	17.4%	5.74	5	4.7
3	2	SNOWALOT	17.1%	5.86	3	3.7
4	6	ALWAYS FLUKE	9.2%	10.81	8	11.0
5	10	SPEEDY CHARIOT	8.1%	12.28	2	11.0
6	5	MELBOURNE HALL	7.0%	14.31	4	14.0
7	11	MY INTELLIGENT	6.3%	15.95	10	11.0
8	8	SUPER DOBBIN	4.6%	21.73	7	20.0
9	3	RED DESERT	4.1%	24.35	9	20.0
10	12	PRECISION GOAL	2.7%	37.63	6	28.0
11	7	CROWN OF STAR	1.0%	97.74	12	145.0
12	4	SEIZE THE DREAM	0.8%	120.27	11	98.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 40.5

PLACE

1 16

2 15.5

10 31

QUINELLA

1,10 275

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 29

1,10 85.5

2,10 73.5

FORECAST

1,10 439

TIERCE

1,10,2 1,550

TRIO

1,2,10 310

FIRST 4

1,2,5,10 430

QUARTET

1,10,2,5 8,972

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 22

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE

1/1 549

1/10 471.5

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