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Sha Tin · 2023-06-18 · 16:31

Race 2

Class 5 WET SLOW 1200m 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-18 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. ACA POWER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-3/4, with HANDSOME REBEL second and JAZZ STEED third. The 2.9 favourite LUCKY RUBY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.10.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ACA POWER CP 1.10.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 3.5 1-3/4
2 1 HANDSOME REBEL B/TT H Bentley · J Richards 8 14.0 1-3/4
3 6 JAZZ STEED TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 6 17.0 2-3/4
4 11 SUPER CLASS H/P/XB K Teetan · A T Millard 11 55.0 6
5 4 TURBO POWER Z Purton · K W Lui 5 5.8 7-1/4
6 2 LUCKY RUBY B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 4 2.9 8-1/4
7 8 GOLDEN MISSION B/TT B Avdulla · C W Chang 12 33.0 9-3/4
8 7 GREEN LASER B/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 10 19.0 9-3/4
9 3 SUPER JOY P/TT K C Leung · L Ho 7 27.0 10-1/4
10 12 SURE WINNER M Dee · Y S Tsui 9 9.2 16-3/4
11 10 BUDDY SPIRIT V-/B2 M F Poon · C H Yip 3 58.0 18-1/2
12 9 SHINY TWO B/XB H T Mo · P F Yiu 1 58.0 19-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ACA POWER2. HANDSOME REBEL+1.75L3. JAZZ STEED+2.75L4. SUPER CLASS+6L5. TURBO POWER+7.25L6. LUCKY RUBY+8.25L7. GOLDEN MISSION+9.75L8. GREEN LASER+9.75L9. SUPER JOY+10.25L10. SURE WINNER+16.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TURBO POWER (23.1%) finished 5th — the winner ACA POWER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TURBO POWER 23.1% 4.32 5
2 5 ACA POWER 15.8% 6.33 1
3 6 JAZZ STEED 15.2% 6.56 3
4 2 LUCKY RUBY 8.6% 11.67 6
5 7 GREEN LASER 7.0% 14.36 8
6 10 BUDDY SPIRIT 5.9% 17.00 11
7 8 GOLDEN MISSION 5.6% 17.72 7
8 11 SUPER CLASS 4.8% 20.77 4
9 12 SURE WINNER 4.7% 21.42 10
10 3 SUPER JOY 3.5% 28.64 9
11 1 HANDSOME REBEL 3.1% 32.45 2
12 9 SHINY TWO 2.7% 36.69 12
TURBO POWERACA POWER — wonJAZZ STEEDLUCKY RUBYGREEN LASERBUDDY SPIRITGOLDEN MISSIONSUPER CLASSSURE WINNERSUPER JOYHANDSOME REBELSHINY TWO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 35

PLACE

1 38.5

5 14

6 39

QUINELLA

1,5 197.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 72.5

1,6 246

5,6 87.5

FORECAST

5,1 336

TIERCE

5,1,6 3,388

TRIO

1,5,6 917

FIRST 4

1,5,6,11 6,480

QUARTET

5,1,6,11 66,120

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/1 41.5

7/5 67.5

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16