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Sha Tin · 2023-06-18 · 18:01

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-18 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LOOKING COOL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with FLYING MOJITO second and PROSECCO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite FLYING MOJITO finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 LOOKING COOL Closed strongly CP 1.35.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 2 6.6 1-3/4
2 2 FLYING MOJITO Led early B/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 7 2.8 1-3/4
3 14 PROSECCO Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 10 11.0 2-1/4
4 6 GOLD TACK CP A Badel · A T Millard 9 14.0 2-1/4
5 1 PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly E C W Wong · D J Whyte 1 6.1 2-1/2
6 3 MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 6 6.3 2-3/4
7 7 LUCKY ETERNITY CP C L Chau · T P Yung 4 11.0 3-1/2
8 10 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly V/XB/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 8 25.0 4
9 11 DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size 13 140.0 4-3/4
10 13 STRONGEST BOY B/TT1 M Dee · D A Hayes 14 21.0 7
11 9 FASTPASS B/XB1 H T Mo · K W Lui 5 156.0 7-3/4
12 12 BULB PRINCE H/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 11 50.0 8-1/4
13 4 SUPER OASIS Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 12 91.0 10-1/2
14 5 FOREST GOLD TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 3 189.0 19-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOOKING COOL2. FLYING MOJITO+1.75L3. PROSECCO+2.25L4. GOLD TACK+2.25L5. PRINCE ALEX+2.5L6. MASTER OF FORTUNE+2.75L7. LUCKY ETERNITY+3.5L8. ASIAN ONE+4L9. DIAMOND WINNER+4.75L10. STRONGEST BOY+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLYING MOJITO (19.4%) finished 2nd — the winner LOOKING COOL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FLYING MOJITO 19.4% 5.16 2
2 3 MASTER OF FORTUNE 14.9% 6.70 6
3 12 BULB PRINCE 8.9% 11.29 12
4 1 PRINCE ALEX 8.8% 11.32 5
5 8 LOOKING COOL 8.8% 11.41 1
6 6 GOLD TACK 8.4% 11.89 4
7 13 STRONGEST BOY 7.7% 13.00 10
8 7 LUCKY ETERNITY 6.4% 15.50 7
9 10 ASIAN ONE 6.3% 15.83 8
10 14 PROSECCO 5.8% 17.25 3
11 4 SUPER OASIS 2.3% 42.95 13
12 11 DIAMOND WINNER 0.9% 113.18 9
13 5 FOREST GOLD 0.8% 131.45 14
14 9 FASTPASS 0.6% 167.00 11
FLYING MOJITOMASTER OF FORTUNEBULB PRINCEPRINCE ALEXLOOKING COOL — wonGOLD TACKSTRONGEST BOYLUCKY ETERNITYASIAN ONEPROSECCOSUPER OASISDIAMOND WINNERFOREST GOLDFASTPASS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 66

PLACE

2 15

8 23.5

14 30.5

QUINELLA

2,8 125

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 51

2,14 68.5

8,14 143.5

FORECAST

8,2 410

TIERCE

8,2,14 2,842

TRIO

2,8,14 422

FIRST 4

2,6,8,14 1,575

QUARTET

8,2,14,6 30,850

All pools (4 more)

1ST TREBLE

11/6/2 186

11/6/8 4,596

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,6/2,8,14 105,394

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 26.5

4TH DOUBLE

6/2 11.5

6/8 233