Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-06-18 · 19:07

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-18 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. YELLOWFIN, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 3-1/2, with SIMPLE HEDGE second and MASTER HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite SIMPLE HEDGE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 YELLOWFIN Closed strongly XB 1.21.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 3 3.2 3-1/2
2 2 SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 5 3.1 3-1/2
3 6 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT M Dee · A S Cruz 7 14.0 4
4 4 LOST CHILD Closed strongly K Teetan · C W Chang 8 15.0 4-1/4
5 12 REGENT GLORY Led early K C Leung · D A Hayes 1 12.0 4-3/4
6 3 CHILLI BABA Closed strongly B C Y Ho · P F Yiu 12 13.0 5
7 11 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 9 13.0 6-3/4
8 1 BLUE MARLIN CP/H H Bentley · D J Whyte 14 8.9 6-3/4
9 10 DIAMOND DIAMOND B1/TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 4 45.0 7
10 8 PROUD DRAGON V/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 6 22.0 8-1/4
11 13 HERCULES Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 11 156.0 12-1/4
12 9 DELAGO PATROL B1 B Avdulla · R Gibson 2 119.0 13
13 14 CASA SACRED B/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 10 244.0 22-1/2
14 5 YOUNG VICTORY B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 13 70.0 23-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YELLOWFIN2. SIMPLE HEDGE+3.5L3. MASTER HERO+4L4. LOST CHILD+4.25L5. REGENT GLORY+4.75L6. CHILLI BABA+5L7. HORSESAIN BOLT+6.75L8. BLUE MARLIN+6.75L9. DIAMOND DIAMOND+7L10. PROUD DRAGON+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SIMPLE HEDGE (29.0%) finished 2nd — the winner YELLOWFIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SIMPLE HEDGE 29.0% 3.45 2
2 7 YELLOWFIN 13.9% 7.20 1
3 8 PROUD DRAGON 9.7% 10.32 10
4 1 BLUE MARLIN 8.8% 11.40 8
5 4 LOST CHILD 8.7% 11.50 4
6 3 CHILLI BABA 5.2% 19.12 6
7 11 HORSESAIN BOLT 5.1% 19.75 7
8 6 MASTER HERO 4.3% 23.23 3
9 12 REGENT GLORY 4.3% 23.50 5
10 10 DIAMOND DIAMOND 3.2% 31.00 9
11 13 HERCULES 2.7% 37.58 11
12 5 YOUNG VICTORY 2.7% 37.72 14
13 9 DELAGO PATROL 1.9% 52.01 12
14 14 CASA SACRED 0.6% 159.42 13
SIMPLE HEDGEYELLOWFIN — wonPROUD DRAGONBLUE MARLINLOST CHILDCHILLI BABAHORSESAIN BOLTMASTER HEROREGENT GLORYDIAMOND DIAMONDHERCULESYOUNG VICTORYDELAGO PATROLCASA SACRED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 32

PLACE

2 16

6 35

7 14

QUINELLA

2,7 58.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 86

2,7 27.5

6,7 76.5

FORECAST

7,2 157

TIERCE

7,2,6 1,279

TRIO

2,6,7 298

FIRST 4

2,4,6,7 500

QUARTET

7,2,6,4 10,973

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A2

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,11/2,6,7 18,113

6TH DOUBLE

11/2 29.5

11/7 236

TRIPLE TRIO

2,8,14/5,9,11/2,6,7 1,452,482

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,8,14/5,9,11/Any Combination 20,318