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Sha Tin · 2023-06-18 · 19:36

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-18 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SAUVESTRE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by F C Lor, won by HD, with FLAMING RABBIT second and AMAZING VICTORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite FLAMING RABBIT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SAUVESTRE Closed strongly TT 1.21.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · F C Lor 2 22.0 HD
2 7 FLAMING RABBIT Led early SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 2.3 HD
3 9 AMAZING VICTORY H- K Teetan · L Ho 1 4.6 1-1/2
4 1 THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 3 20.0 2
5 6 SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT Z Purton · W Y So 4 49.0 2-1/4
6 8 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly M Dee · D A Hayes 7 15.0 3
7 2 BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly TT K C Leung · F C Lor 8 28.0 3-1/4
8 3 ERIMO PC-/B2 A Badel · J Size 5 7.1 3-3/4
9 5 GALAXY WITNESS B C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 5.1 4
10 10 GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 9 59.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SAUVESTRE2. FLAMING RABBIT+0.2L3. AMAZING VICTORY+1.5L4. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+2L5. SUPER WIN DRAGON+2.25L6. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+3L7. BEAUTY LIVE+3.25L8. ERIMO+3.75L9. GALAXY WITNESS+4L10. GRATEFUL HEART+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ERIMO (20.4%) finished 8th — the winner SAUVESTRE was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 ERIMO 20.4% 4.90 8
2 6 SUPER WIN DRAGON 16.3% 6.12 5
3 5 GALAXY WITNESS 13.5% 7.43 9
4 9 AMAZING VICTORY 12.0% 8.35 3
5 7 FLAMING RABBIT 10.5% 9.53 2
6 2 BEAUTY LIVE 7.6% 13.10 7
7 4 SAUVESTRE 6.6% 15.12 1
8 1 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 5.6% 18.00 4
9 8 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 4.6% 21.78 6
10 10 GRATEFUL HEART 2.9% 34.31 10
ERIMOSUPER WIN DRAGONGALAXY WITNESSAMAZING VICTORYFLAMING RABBITBEAUTY LIVESAUVESTRE — wonTHE GOLDEN SCENERYFLAGSHIP WARRIORGRATEFUL HEART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 223.5

PLACE

4 31.5

7 14

9 16

QUINELLA

4,7 200

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 77

4,9 112.5

7,9 24.5

FORECAST

4,7 700

TIERCE

4,7,9 3,038

TRIO

4,7,9 322

FIRST 4

1,4,7,9 688

QUARTET

4,7,9,1 23,804

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 60

A1

A2

7TH DOUBLE

7/4 1,052

7/7 15.5