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Sha Tin · 2023-06-18 · 20:08

Race 9

Class 3 WET SLOW 1200m 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-18 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. GUMMY GUMMY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 1, with SELF IMPROVEMENT second and MARK THE MOMENT third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 GUMMY GUMMY B 1.08.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 5 1.8 1
2 9 SELF IMPROVEMENT TT B Avdulla · K L Man 8 12.0 1
3 3 MARK THE MOMENT V/TT E C W Wong · P C Ng 1 4.8 3-1/2
4 10 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 7 20.0 4-1/4
5 4 LIGHTNING BOLT TT K Teetan · C S Shum 6 13.0 4-1/2
6 11 ELON E/PC A Badel · J Size 12 17.0 6
7 7 MAN STAR V A Hamelin · K H Ting 4 24.0 7-1/4
8 5 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 2 13.0 7-1/4
9 8 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B-/PC2 H T Mo · K W Lui 3 132.0 8
10 6 SUGAR SUGAR B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 11 24.0 8-1/2
11 1 SUNNY BOY B/TT C L Chau · W Y So 9 37.0 10-1/4
12 12 BEAR SLAM B2 M L Yeung · C W Chang 10 58.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GUMMY GUMMY2. SELF IMPROVEMENT+1L3. MARK THE MOMENT+3.5L4. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+4.25L5. LIGHTNING BOLT+4.5L6. ELON+6L7. MAN STAR+7.25L8. SUPER FORTUNE+7.25L9. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+8L10. SUGAR SUGAR+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GUMMY GUMMY (37.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 GUMMY GUMMY 37.3% 2.68 1
2 3 MARK THE MOMENT 11.4% 8.75 3
3 4 LIGHTNING BOLT 8.2% 12.20 5
4 10 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 7.6% 13.21 4
5 6 SUGAR SUGAR 7.4% 13.60 10
6 9 SELF IMPROVEMENT 6.5% 15.41 2
7 5 SUPER FORTUNE 5.6% 17.97 8
8 7 MAN STAR 4.9% 20.29 7
9 8 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 3.6% 27.73 9
10 11 ELON 3.6% 27.77 6
11 1 SUNNY BOY 2.7% 36.91 11
12 12 BEAR SLAM 1.2% 81.03 12
GUMMY GUMMY — wonMARK THE MOMENTLIGHTNING BOLTEVERYONE'S VICTORYSUGAR SUGARSELF IMPROVEMENTSUPER FORTUNEMAN STARHIGH RISE SOLDIERELONSUNNY BOYBEAR SLAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 18.5

PLACE

2 13.5

3 15

9 35.5

QUINELLA

2,9 122.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 20

2,9 51

3,9 81.5

FORECAST

2,9 210

TIERCE

2,9,3 583

TRIO

2,3,9 119

FIRST 4

2,3,9,10 437

QUARTET

2,9,3,10 5,171

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 13.5

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,9/2,3,9 4,045

8TH DOUBLE

4/2 748.5

4/9 601.5