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Sha Tin · 2023-06-18 · 17:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. COMMANDING MISSILE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with SUPER HIGHWAY second and KING OF THE COURT third. The 3.1 favourite SUNLIGHT POWER finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 COMMANDING MISSILE H/B2 1.09.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C W Chang 10 12.0 N
2 1 SUPER HIGHWAY V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 3.7 N
3 9 KING OF THE COURT B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 6.6 N
4 6 GO HERO K Teetan · Y S Tsui 4 15.0 3/4
5 7 HO HO STAR A Hamelin · C H Yip 11 64.0 1-1/2
6 8 GO GO GO H/TT L Ferraris · W Y So 7 88.0 2-1/4
7 3 LUCKY FUN K C Leung · L Ho 9 54.0 2-3/4
8 10 NOBLE ONE B1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 8.3 3-3/4
9 2 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 2 8.4 5-1/2
10 5 LUCKY BANNER H/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 12 50.0 5-3/4
11 4 SUNLIGHT POWER Z Purton · P F Yiu 8 3.1 7-1/4
12 12 ORIENTAL SPIRIT B M F Poon · D A Hayes 3 32.0 18-3/4
0 FORTUNE WARRIOR · P C Ng
0 THE FINAL WORD H Bentley · R Gibson

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COMMANDING MISSILE2. SUPER HIGHWAY+0.05L3. KING OF THE COURT+0.05L4. GO HERO+0.75L5. HO HO STAR+1.5L6. GO GO GO+2.25L7. LUCKY FUN+2.75L8. NOBLE ONE+3.75L9. PINS PRINCE+5.5L10. LUCKY BANNER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUPER HIGHWAY (26.5%) finished 2nd — the winner COMMANDING MISSILE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SUPER HIGHWAY 26.5% 3.77 2
2 4 SUNLIGHT POWER 20.2% 4.94 11
3 10 NOBLE ONE 10.3% 9.72 8
4 2 PINS PRINCE 6.8% 14.80 9
5 6 GO HERO 6.6% 15.10 4
6 9 KING OF THE COURT 6.3% 15.96 3
7 5 LUCKY BANNER 5.9% 16.82 10
8 11 COMMANDING MISSILE 5.7% 17.68 1
9 12 ORIENTAL SPIRIT 4.6% 21.80 12
10 7 HO HO STAR 4.2% 23.67 5
11 3 LUCKY FUN 1.9% 51.70 7
12 8 GO GO GO 1.0% 105.14 6
SUPER HIGHWAYSUNLIGHT POWERNOBLE ONEPINS PRINCEGO HEROKING OF THE COURTLUCKY BANNERCOMMANDING MISSILE — wonORIENTAL SPIRITHO HO STARLUCKY FUNGO GO GO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 128.5

PLACE

1 16

9 19

11 31.5

QUINELLA

1,11 269

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 57.5

1,11 83

9,11 127.5

FORECAST

11,1 717

TIERCE

11,1,9 4,168

TRIO

1,9,11 655

FIRST 4

1,6,9,11 1,686

QUARTET

11,1,9,6 49,515

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,6/1,9,11 39,419

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 23.5

5/11 560.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 42.5

A2